Posted on November 23, 2019, by Travis Pulver

When the college football and NFL seasons began, it was considered a given that Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was going to be the No. 1 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. But with the importance quarterbacks have in today’s NFL, a talent like him could be just what a franchise needs to start working towards the top.

However, after going down with a season-ending hip injury last weekend, there is some doubt as to where he is going to get drafted.

That is, assuming he still comes out early and enters the draft as expected. While he will have recovered in time for training camp next season, he now has an injury history that could scare some teams off. But if a team is going to take him high in the draft, they are going to need to feel confident not just in his ability, but his durability as well. 

According to Tony Pauline of Pro Football Network, sources close to Tagovailoa say that there is not much of a chance he returns to Alabama next year. The only reason why he would even consider doing so is to prove he is healthy and improve his draft stock.

While he could still go high in the draft, chances are he is going to fall. Depending on just how far he does fall, that could mean the loss of millions of dollars. The insurance policy he got through the university isn’t going to help. It was only for permanent disability.

If the doctors say he can’t play ever again, then he collects. He decided not to get a loss-of-value policy. So, if (when) he falls, however far he falls, he will just have to accept that as lost income he can’t get back.

However, there is an argument for him to go back. But there is also one for cutting his losses and entering the draft this year. If he were to returns to Alabama and has additional injury issues, Day Two of the draft will become his best-case scenario.

So, if you think you know what the future holds for Tagovailoa, then you may be interested in a wager offered by Bovada.lv:

  • Where Will Tua Tagovailoa Be Drafted In The 2020 NFL Draft?
    • Over 19.5 +135
    • Under 19.5 -125
    • Not drafted +350

Even though his injury was a bad one, he is expected to make a full recovery. With that in mind, it is highly unlikely he goes undrafted. But it would be incredibly shocking if no one picked him up.

So, when will he go?

Among the teams shaping up to be picking inside the first 20 selections, the Redskins, Giants, Browns, Cardinals, and Jets are probably the only ones not interested in taking a quarterback in the first round. At the same time, the Colts, Jaguars, Rams, and Eagles are probably not interested. However, Carolina, Chicago, Detroit, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Denver, Tennessee, the Chargers, and Pittsburgh could be.

Cincinnati and Miami will absolutely be looking for a quarterback with their first-round pick. Both will be picking inside the top ten. Cincinnati will likely go first and will take Joe Burrow. Unless Miami Dolphins owner Stephen Ross falls in love with another QB before the draft, he will probably still have his team take Tagovailoa with their first-round pick.

So—how should you bet?

With two teams looking for a new quarterback in the draft choosing inside the first ten, Tua Tagovailoa will go inside the top 20. Take the under.

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