It’s Wednesday April 14, 2021 and if you’re ready to bet on Football and by Football we mean Soccer then take a read from Doug and his latest betting picks for today via the Run Down:

Manchester City @ Borussia Dortmund – 3:00 p.m. ET

This is the definition of a value play. If Manchester City failed to win by two goals at home in the first leg, why are they winning by two today?

They’re on the road with a 2-1 aggregate advantage against a desperate Dortmund (this is the UCL quarter-finals!) — and need only the draw to advance. Yet we can grab, and will grab, the Germans +1. Dortmund can knock them out with a 1-0 win or a two-goal win. With a matching 2-1 scoreline, they’d force extra time.

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This is a classic spot for Pep Guardiola to emphasize defense. Don’t be surprised if they shut it down for 90 minutes in a near-snooze fest. Plus, Dortmund was still able to crack the back line last week and find a crucial away goal. Anytime Erling Haaland is on the field, BVB is liable to score.

Pick: Borussia Dortmund +1 (-124)

DFS Value Play: Thorgan Hazard ($6100)

Real Madrid @ Liverpool – 3:00 p.m. ET

At this point, you might be noticing a pattern with our (awesome, money-making) UCL picks: Take the team who is down on aggregate to cover or win in the second leg. So obviously we’re taking Liverpool down 3-1 coming into this spot, right?

ABSOLUTELY NOT. There’s no way we’re stepping in front of this Real Madrid team. Across all competitions, Los Blancos are on a six-match winning streak – scoring at least two goals in each match and beating Barcelona over the weekend. They have not lost since January 30, and we can bet on them simply to not lose here (+0.5).

Again, the Reds just aren’t the same team this season. Once they start throwing bodies forward, they’ll be vulnerable at the back, and Madrid can hit them on the counter. If they get one on the board early, it could be a long day for Liverpool.

Pick: Real Madrid +0.5 (-110)

DFS Value Play: Vinicius Junior ($5900)

Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants – 3:45 p.m. ET

Meet the NL Central-leading… Cincinnati Reds? Granted, this is a team that has played series against the bottom-dwelling Pirates, Diamondbacks and now Giants, but that doesn’t change the fact that Cincy leads the majors with a whopping 75 runs scored. Nick Castellanos has largely been the catalyst, posting a 1.073 OPS with four homers.

On Wednesday, he and his teammates face a former Red, Johnny Cueto, who looked a lot like his old self in a near-complete game win over the Rockies last time out. The reality, however, is that the 35-year-old has experienced diminishing returns while dealing with various injuries over the last few seasons.

Last night, the Reds blew a 4-0 first-inning lead and lost. They’ll come out hot today before a travel day tomorrow. They cruise to a win before they fly back to Ohio.

Pick: Reds -113


First leg – 7:00 p.m. ET

The Winnipeg Jets have been remarkably good on the road this season, averaging 3.26 goals per game and notching 14 wins, tied for the highest mark in the league. They dropped Monday’s game in Ottawa, and that’s extremely unlikely to happen again.

The Colorado Avalanche have been remarkably good… just in general lately. The Avs have won eight of their last nine, averaging an eye-popping 4.11 goals per game over that stretch. They should make short work of an underperforming Blues squad.

Pick: Jets and Avalanche Parlay +142


Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros – 7:10 p.m. ET

The best time to take advantage of a prop is when the line makes no sense. Michael Brantley – the owner of a .310 batting average and the second spot in a potent Astros lineup – is plus money on his runs scored prop. He’s going up against Tigers starter Michael Fulmer, who is prone to mistakes.

Pick: Michael Brantley Over 0.5 Runs Scored +102

Bold Bet

San Diego Padres @ Pittsburgh Pirates – 6:35 p.m. ET

Betting the Pirates to win outright is bold. Betting the Pirates against Joe Musgrove — who just threw a no-hitter — is super bold. But since no one in their right mind is taking Pittsburgh tonight, we’ll go down that path. Also, last night, Pittsburgh knocked Blake Snell out of the game in the first inning and won 8-4. Just saying.

Pick: Pirates +180
Degenerate Corner

If you were to look up “going against the grain,” you’d probably see a logo of The Rundown. Don’t actually look it up, bear with us. In today’s bold bet, we are getting absolutely down and dirty. The reason: the advantage of being as contrarian as possible, especially when over two-thirds of public tickets are on the other side as of this writing.

Your turn: Pick a lopsided matchup on paper today and go against the grain. If you get it right, we’ll shout it out next newsletter.

Shoutout: Reader David Nagelberg narrowly missed on his NY hometown parlay by winning on the Rangers -185 and Mets +110 (Game 2 of a doubleheader), but losing on the Yankees -110. Tough luck, David, but you and all of our new readers will have a chance to earn a shoutout tomorrow.

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