One of the most popular sports to wager on is basketball, as the National Basketball Association (NBA) provides numerous opportunities to wager on one of the most popular sports on the planet.
While it may be popular to bet on the league, it doesn’t mean that the vast majority of people are having success, especially when it comes to prop bets. The reality is that prop bets can often give you the greatest chance for success. In fact, the Las Vegas Hilton claims that they lose money frequently on these types of wagers, and is why several sportsbooks are limiting the amount of money a person can wager on a prop bet.
What that means is that there is some money to be had out there. If NBA prop bets are where you want to make some money, here are some strategies to consider using.
Bet on the People You Know About
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The first strategy is to wager only on teams or players that you know well. Many see a great line and try to get in on the action, not understanding the dynamics of that player or team. This is not wise at all.
Making smart NBA prop bets starts with making informed choices. This means you have to do your homework and, if you have been following a player quite extensively, it makes your job a whole lot easier.
For example, if you see a great line for James Harden to score 30 points in a contest, you probably already know how well he has been performing of late. You may even have good statistics on his performance against the team for that night, how he has played on back-to-back nights and his success on the road versus at home. All of this kind of information is important when making NBA prop bets, and is why you need to choose NBA players you know well.
Avoid “He’s Due” Scenarios
This is one of the most commonly made mistakes when it comes to NBA prop bets. Russell Westbrook may have performed poorly in his last four or five games, making you conclude that he must be “due” to break out of the slump. The question is why? Why, all of a sudden, is he due to turn things around?
The reality is that he may not be. Don’t make assumptions on NBA prop bets because your gut instinct tells you to go with a particular choice. Follow the statistics. Look at the trends. You can win if you keep your heart and your intuition out of it.
Choose the Right Sportsbook
The Sportsbook you select is also important. There are some sites that will have NBA prop bets which are much more appealing. Not only is the line better, but bonuses and other options may make it more appealing for you to choose that sports, knows, knows all the germs off-book. This is especially true if you are new to placing wagers, as you can take advantage of first-time deposit offers that are available.
It also pays to shop around. If James Harden scoring 30 points or more in a game gives you an odds of +130 on one site, look around at some other sites to see if you can find a better line, something where you can earn more money. In all honesty, your loyalty to one site over another is irrelevant. You are in it to make money!
Use the Right Data for Your Wager
A common mistake that many make is that they apply the wrong statistics to the NBA prop bets in question. For example, they want to bet on the number of three-pointers that Steph Curry will make but are looking at his overall points per game. That statistic doesn’t bear any real insight for making such a bet.
Instead, you should only be looking at statistics related to three-pointers by Curry. This includes his three-point shooting percentage, the number he hits on average per night, and how well he has performed in the past against that team in terms of three-pointers.
You may also want to look at the number of three-pointers that Golden State has produced against that team on average. This will let you know if you should expect the team to be putting up a lot of three-pointers that night, which will benefit Curry.
Make Bets That Work Together
One last strategy we want to mention is placing NBA prop bets that don’t fly in opposition to one another. For example, if you are betting for Harden to score 30 points in a game against Milwaukee, it may not make sense to choose Milwaukee to hold Houston to less than 80 points that night.
You should only make a wager like this if you have discovered that when Harden has a big night that Houston often struggles. Then a bet like that makes sense. However, if you find that his big night usually translates into a big night for the Rockets, then don’t bet against yourself.
These kinds of NBA prop bets can make for a great night for you. You simply have to be smart about the type of wagers you are making, and these strategies should help you to make good choices. There is a chance to win big if you bet smart.