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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-2) vs. Atlanta Falcons (1-4) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium

NFL Week 6: 1:00 ET on Sunday, October 14, 2018

It’s a battle of two NFC South opponents that have been rather disappointing to this point in the season when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to Georgia to take on the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta has won the last three contests between these two teams, including sweeping last year with a 14 point victory in November and a three-point victory in Tampa Bay three weeks later. However, this has been a back-and-forth series as the Buccaneers won the three previous contests. Atlanta leads the all-time series 25-24-0.

Buccaneers Look to Gain Momentum Following Bye

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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were off for Week 5. That gave this team the opportunity to regroup after being absolutely crushed by the Chicago Bears on September 30, 48-10. Mitchell Trubisky threw for 354 yards in the contest while quarterback Jameis Winston returned to throw for just 145 yards while tossing two interceptions.

The question is if the Chicago game was an aberration or if a glowing concern about this team has arisen. They open the season with an eight-point victory in New Orleans before winning by six against the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles a week later. However, Tampa Bay lost by three to Pittsburgh on Monday night football before being crushed by the Bears.

The Buccaneers have traditionally performed well following their bye week, going 9-3 in their last 12 such contests.

Tampa Bay’s offense is averaging 28.0 points per game and putting up 432.8 yards per contest. However, the defense is allowing 34.8 points on average and allowing 445.8 per game. They have been stingy against a run, allowing 87.8 yards per contest, but have had no success running the ball, averaging 69.5 yards per game.

Atlanta Crushed by Steelers, 41-17

After losing a pair of close contests in the two previous Sundays, Atlanta took an old-fashioned heat down, falling to the Pittsburgh Steelers 41-17.

Trends:

Tampa Bay:

  • 4-0 ATS in their last four games against NFC South opponents.
  • 5-1 ATS in their last six games against NFC teams.
  • 1-4 ATS in their last five games on the road against teams with a losing record home.
  • 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games in October.

Atlanta:

  • 1-4 ATS in their last five games in Week 6.
  • 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
  • 0-7 ATS in their last seven games in October.

The Winner Prediction

This is a battle of two teams that simply cannot play defense right now. Matt Ryan looks solid last week, but Winston is showing some of the cobwebs of appearing in his first contest. The bye week should definitely help him to be better prepared for this contest and that is a big advantage for Tampa Bay. For that reason, go with the box.

The Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) (-120)

The Total

These teams are terrible on defense which should bode well for a high scoring game. It would not be surprising to see the total in this contest reach into the 70s.

The Pick: Over 57.5 (-110)

 

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