Reds vs. Pirates Prediction, Betting Tips & Picks 5/7/2022

by | May 7, 2022

The Cincinnati Reds (3-22) hope to avoid their 10th straight defeat when they host the Pittsburgh Pirates (10-13) Saturday at 12:35 PM ET. The Reds are listed as -145 favorites to snap their losing skid, while the Pirates are +125 underdogs. Connor Overton starts for Cincinnati while Mitch Keller is Pittsburgh’s starter for the contest.

Reds vs. Pirates Spread and Betting Line

Reds vs Pirates Betting Information
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds
Reds -145 +125 7 -120 +100 -1.5 +125 -145

Computer Predictions for Reds vs. Pirates

Our computer pick: Pittsburgh Pirates (+125) and Over (7)

Reds vs. Pirates Game Info

  • Cincinnati Reds probable starting pitcher: Connor Overton
  • Pittsburgh Pirates probable starting pitcher: Mitch Keller
  • Game Day: Saturday, May 7, 2022
  • Game Time: 12:35 PM ET
  • Location: Cincinnati, Ohio
  • Stadium: Great American Ball Park

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pitching Matchup

Overton Keller
1 GS 5
0-0 W-L 0-4
1.69 ERA 5.32
5.1 IP 23.2
2 BB 7
3 SO 21

Reds Starter Connor Overton

  • Overton (0-0) makes the start for the Reds, his second of the season.
  • His most recent appearance was on Sunday against the Colorado Rockies, when the right-hander tossed 5 1/3 innings, surrendering one earned run while allowing three hits.
  • In one games this season, he has put up a 1.69 ERA and averages 5.1 strikeouts per nine innings while opposing batters are hitting .188 against him.
  • He will take the mound against a Pirates offense that is batting .240 as a unit (10th in MLB). It is also slugging a collective .349 (22nd in MLB) with 14 total home runs (28th in MLB).

Pirates Starter Mitch Keller

  • The Pirates’ Keller (0-4) will make his sixth start of the season.
  • The right-hander gave up one earned run and allowed five hits in six innings pitched against the San Diego Padres on Sunday.
  • The 26-year-old has an ERA of 5.32 and 8.0 strikeouts per nine innings with an opponent batting average of .278 in five games this season.
  • In five starts this season, he’s earned one quality start.
  • Keller has started five games this season, and he’s lasted five or more innings two times. He averages 4.2 innings per appearance.
  • The Reds rank 29th in MLB with a .202 batting average this season. They have a team slugging percentage that ranks 30th in the league (.318) and 18 home runs.
  • The 26-year-old ranks 58th in ERA (5.32), 59th in WHIP (1.437), and 37th in K/9 (8.0) among qualified pitchers in the majors this campaign.

Reds Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Reds have been listed as the favorite three times this season but have failed to win any of those games.
  • Cincinnati has not entered a game this season as a bigger favorite on the moneyline than the -145 odds on them winning this game.
  • The moneyline for this contest implies a 59.2% chance of a victory for the Reds.
  • Cincinnati and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 15 of their 25 opportunities.
  • In 25 games with a spread this season, the Reds are 6-19-0 ATS.

Pirates Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Pirates have won in eight, or 40%, of the 20 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs in this year.
  • This year, Pittsburgh has won five of 16 games when listed as at least +125 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Pirates have a 44.4% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.
  • Pittsburgh and their opponents have hit the over in nine of their 23 games with a total set by oddsmakers this season.
  • In 23 games with a line this season, the Pirates have a mark of 13-10-0 against the spread.

Reds Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Tommy Pham paces the Reds with four home runs and has a team-best batting average of .247.
  • Among all MLB hitters, Pham is 80th in batting average, 59th in on-base percentage, and 43rd in slugging.
  • Pham has collected a hit in three straight games. During his last five outings he is hitting .294 with a double, a home run, three walks and an RBI.
  • Brandon Drury has shown his power as he paces his team with four home runs and 10 RBI.
  • Drury has two games in a row with at least one hit. During his last five outings he is hitting .263 with a double, a home run and three RBI.
  • Kyle Farmer has put up a team-best 10 runs batted in.
  • Tyler Stephenson is batting .263 with three home runs and four walks.
Tommy Pham 23 .247 .344 .457 4 7 20
Brandon Drury 20 .231 .271 .477 4 10 15
Kyle Farmer 24 .221 .269 .302 0 10 19
Tyler Stephenson 14 .263 .356 .500 3 8 10
Mike Moustakas 16 .241 .276 .333 1 5 13

Pirates Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Daniel Vogelbach has put up a team-best four home runs.
  • Vogelbach is 34th in home runs and 80th in RBI among all batters in MLB.
  • Ben Gamel has four doubles, a triple, a home run and nine walks while batting .279.
  • Gamel ranks 173rd overall in home runs and 98th in RBI this season.
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has racked up a team-best batting average of .312.
  • Michael Chavis has driven in the most runs for the Pirates with 12 runs batted in.
Daniel Vogelbach 19 .304 .355 .536 4 11 21
Ben Gamel 23 .279 .364 .412 1 10 19
Ke’Bryan Hayes 22 .312 .400 .390 0 6 24
Michael Chavis 19 .288 .302 .508 3 12 17
Bryan Reynolds 21 .215 .319 .342 2 4 17

Betting Tips for Reds vs. Pirates

After analyzing all of the key trends and statistics for this matchup, our best bet is the Pirates on the moneyline at +125. Our computer prediction sees the scoring going over the total of 7 runs.

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