Reds vs. Pirates Prediction, Betting Tips & Picks 5/14/2022

by | May 14, 2022

Following a two-homer game last time out, Mike Moustakas leads the Cincinnati Reds (9-24) into action as -119 favorites against the Pittsburgh Pirates (13-19). First pitch from PNC Park at 6:35 PM ET on Saturday. Luis Castillo will get the ball for Cincinnati while Pittsburgh counter with Zach Thompson.

Reds vs. Pirates Spread and Betting Line

Reds vs Pirates Betting Information
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds
Reds -119 +100 8 -105 -115 -1.5 +144 -171

Computer Predictions for Reds vs. Pirates

Our computer pick: Pittsburgh Pirates (+100) and Over (8)

Reds vs. Pirates Game Info

  • Cincinnati Reds probable starting pitcher: Luis Castillo
  • Pittsburgh Pirates probable starting pitcher: Zach Thompson
  • Game Day: Saturday, May 14, 2022
  • Game Time: 6:35 PM ET
  • Location: Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
  • Stadium: PNC Park

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pitching Matchup

Castillo Thompson
1 GS 5
0-0 W-L 1-3
5.79 ERA 7.08
4.2 IP 20.1
3 BB 10
5 SO 19

Reds Starter Luis Castillo

  • Castillo (0-0) gets the starting nod for the Reds, his second this season.
  • His last appearance came on Monday against the Milwaukee Brewers, when the righty threw 4 2/3 innings, surrendering three earned runs while giving up three hits.
  • Over his one appearances this season, opposing hitters have a collective batting average of just .176 against him. He has a 5.79 ERA and averages 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings.
  • He will take the mound against a Pirates offense that ranks 13th in MLB with 247 total hits (on a .234 batting average). The squad also slugs a collective .364 (17th in MLB) with 26 total home runs (23rd in MLB).

Pirates Starter Zach Thompson

  • The Pirates’ Thompson (1-3) will make his sixth start of the season.
  • The right-hander last pitched on Sunday, when he allowed two hits in five scoreless innings against the Cincinnati Reds.
  • The 28-year-old has pitched in six games this season with an ERA of 7.08 and 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings, with an opponent batting average of .292.
  • In five starts this season, Thompson has not yet earned a quality start.
  • In five starts this season, Thompson has lasted five or more innings one time, with an average of 3.1 innings per appearance.
  • The Reds have scored 140 runs this season, which ranks 10th in MLB. They have 236 hits, 21st in baseball, with 29 home runs (14th in the league).
  • This season, the right-hander has pitched against the Reds in one game, and they have gone 2-for-18 over five innings.

Reds Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Reds have entered the game as favorites four times this season and won once.
  • Cincinnati has played as a favorite of -119 or more twice this season and split those games.
  • The Reds have a 54.3% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
  • Cincinnati and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 22 of their 33 opportunities.
  • The Reds are 13-20-0 against the spread this season.

Pirates Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Pirates have come away with 10 wins in the 25 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
  • This season, Pittsburgh has come away with a win 10 times in 25 chances when named as an underdog of at least +100 or longer on the moneyline.
  • Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Pirates have a 50% chance of pulling out a win.
  • Contests with Pittsburgh have gone over the total set by bookmakers in 14 of 32 chances this season.
  • The Pirates are 16-16-0 against the spread in their 32 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.

Reds Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Brandon Drury leads the Reds with seven home runs and 22 runs batted in.
  • Drury’s home runs put him 12th in MLB, and he is 13th in RBI.
  • Tommy Pham is hitting .239 with five doubles, four home runs and 21 walks.
  • Pham ranks 57th in homers and 123rd in RBI among all major league hitters this season.
  • Tyler Stephenson has five doubles, four home runs and six walks while batting .328.
  • Tyler Naquin is batting .263 to pace his team.
  • Naquin brings a five-game streak with at least one hit into this one. In his last five games he is batting .526 with four doubles, a triple, a walk and six RBI.
Name GP BA OBP SLG HR RBI H
Brandon Drury 28 .260 .339 .562 7 22 25
Tommy Pham 31 .239 .362 .394 4 11 26
Tyler Stephenson 22 .328 .395 .582 4 19 22
Tyler Naquin 26 .263 .314 .453 2 19 25
Colin Moran 25 .219 .286 .411 4 21 16

Pirates Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Ben Gamel has racked up a team-leading 15 runs batted in.
  • Among all hitters in MLB, Gamel’s home run total ranks 86th and his RBI tally is 63rd.
  • Gamel carries a three-game hitting streak into this matchup. During his last five outings he is hitting .368 with a double, a home run, three walks and two RBI.
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has a club-leading .324 batting average.
  • Hayes is 302nd overall in home runs and 191st in RBI this year.
  • Daniel Vogelbach has five home runs, tops in the clubhouse.
  • Bryan Reynolds has three doubles, a triple, four home runs and 15 walks while hitting .214.
Name GP BA OBP SLG HR RBI H
Ben Gamel 32 .307 .381 .475 3 15 31
Ke’Bryan Hayes 30 .324 .424 .410 0 8 34
Daniel Vogelbach 27 .258 .330 .464 5 12 25
Bryan Reynolds 30 .214 .312 .366 4 6 24
Michael Chavis 27 .256 .273 .451 3 13 21

Betting Tips for Reds vs. Pirates

After analyzing all of the key stats and trends for this matchup, our best bet is the Pirates on the moneyline at +100. Our computer prediction sees the scoring going over the total of 8 runs.

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