There may be no more important position in sports than that of quarterback and that is why it is not surprising that there are a number of prop bets surrounding the two quarterbacks who will be leading their teams in Super Bowl LIII. New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady will be appearing in his record ninth Super Bowl, while the Los Angeles Rams Jared Goff will be making his first appearance.
Both quarterbacks had outstanding regular seasons, but neither has looked as impressive during the postseason. This should make for an interesting contest, and here are some of the prop bets that you can place on these two superstars, as well as what we believe to be the smart bet.
Tom Brady over 300.5 yards passing (-140) – this honestly seems like a no-brainer. Brady has thrown for over 300 yards in each of his last three Super Bowl appearances, including a record 505 yards last season. However, the Los Angeles Rams have not allowed a 300 yard passer all season. Which one of those trends is going to come to an end?
Brady over 0.5 interceptions (-125) – it doesn’t really take a mistake by Brady to go over. A tipped pass, dropped ball, or deflection and Brady is suddenly over. In the last three Super Bowls, the New England quarterback has had three interceptions and he threw two against the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship game. As good as Brady is, he is not perfect.
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Jared Goff under 299.5 yards passing (-115) – Goff had a great season, throwing for over 4000 yards and 32 touchdowns. However, he has 483 yards passing in his two postseason games this year, an average of 241.5 yards per game. If Todd Gurley is healthy, look for the Rams to try to run the ball down the throats of the Patriots. Also consider that the first Super Bowl appearance for the Rams quarterback should be worth a 50 yard reduction.
Brady throws over 37.5 passing attempts (-135) – consider this statistic for a moment. In eight previous Super Bowl appearances, Brady has thrown at least 41 passes in six of those appearances. The last time he went under 40 was Super Bowl XXXIX in 2004. Since then he has thrown 48, 41, 50, a record 62, and 48. Why would you go with anything but the over?
Brady goes over 25.5 completions (-140) – No quarterback is going to average 50 pass attempts over his last five Super Bowl appearances unless he is completing better than 60% of those attempts. That is the case with Brady, who has not completed less than 23 passes since the 2004 Super Bowl when he was 23 of 33. Since then, his lowest total was 27 in 2011.
Brady goes over 2.0 touchdown passes (-135) – while both teams have solid defenses, this contest is going to be an offensive showcase. It is true that the Patriots have rushed for eight touchdowns while Brady has only thrown two touchdowns in the postseason, but this is the Super Bowl. New England will win as long as the ball is in Brady’s hands. Consider that in his last three Super Bowl appearances Brady has thrown for nine touchdowns and he has recorded at least two touchdown passes in six of his eight appearances.
Goff goes under 37.0 pass attempts (-115) – Goff has thrown 68 pass attempts in his two playoff appearances this year, an average of 34.0 per game. As much confidence as the staff has in their superstar quarterback, the Rams will go as far as Gurley and Anderson take them. If he throws just 30 passes it means the running attack is doing its job and the Rams will win.
Goff over 0.5 interceptions (-150) – See the explanation for Brady.
Brady’s longest completion less than 37.5 yards (-115) – Brady beats teams by making sharp, precise passes. He looks for the little 10 or 15 yard completion to continually keep the team moving forward. The only way he goes over is if someone breaks a few tackles and the Rams are pretty sound defensively.
Goff’s longest completion over 38.5 (-115) – the Rams are more of the big strike offense, and there is no doubt that they’re going to challenge the secondary for New England. In fact, if they are going to win, they have to force this secondary out-of-the-box, so look for a completion of at least 40 in this game. Goff’s long this postseason is 39.
Brady goes over 0.5 yards rushing (-115) and Goff goes over 8.5 yards rushing (-115) – The Brady statistic is ridiculous to be honest. There will be a fourth-down situation where New England needs a single yard and Brady is good to get that on a quarterback sneak. Plus, there will be occasions during this game where each quarterback is going to be forced to scramble outside the pocket and keep the drive alive with a run of 10 or 11 yards.