The New England Patriots just keep winning. Meanwhile, the New York Jets finally got their first win of the season.
The NFL odds have the Patriots listed as 10-point road favorites. Will they cover the double-digit number, or does the home team have a chance? Sam Darnold is back; can the Jets keep it close with low flyby?
A Brief History in the AFC East
The last time the Jets beat the Patriots was way back on December 27th of 2015. They won 26-20 as the home team and got the backdoor cover as 2.5-point home-dogs. However, this Jets team is 10-point home-doggies. And the Patriots have one of the meanest defenses we’ve seen in a while. In the last 10 meetings between these two teams, the abovementioned Jets win is the only one. The Patriots literally win 9 out of 10 times.
The Pats have now won 10 straight games counting back into last season’s playoffs and in those 10 games, they have covered the spread eight times. These are all stats that point towards a Pats win and cover. But wait … they tend to fail to cover the Vegas odds when they play in East Rutherford. In the last six road games to play the Jets, the Pats have only covered the point spread once. Another thing to note is the UNDER has cashed in the eight out of ten of the last Patriots vs. AFC East games.
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Patriots Defense vs. Jets Offense: Betting the Spread
In the rest of the AFC East, the Miami Dolphins are on track to being the worst team in the NFL’s 16-game season history. It’s truly appalling … or amazing, depending on how you look at it. We have never seen a team flop this bad. They are not even trying to hide the fact that they are tanking intentionally. The Jets finally got a win, but their playoff hopes are pretty much dead in the water – so they don’t have the same amount of motivation as the Patriots coming into Week 7. That just leaves the Bills, whose only loss so far this season has come at the hands of New England. This means that the Patriots have to stay ahead of Buffalo, especially in division games.
The Pats have gotten this far due to their stellar defense. So let’s start there.
The Patriots Defense
The Pats defense has been incredible this season. They are allowing just 8 points per game. But what about when they’re on the road? Well, it just gets worse for teams. The Patriots secondary seems to get particularly fired up when they are away from the comforts of Gillette Stadium. On the road, New England is allowing just 5.67 points per game and has the second-best road passing defense in the NFL at just 152.33 yards allowed per game.
The Pats misfired a few times last week against the NY Giants. It was the Patriots clumsiest performance this season, yet they still managed to cover the 16.5-point spread, winning 35-14. The D picked-off Daniel Jones three times, holding him to one touchdown and 161 yards. The Rushing attack was held to just 52 yards. So why was it sloppy? Well, Tom threw a pick and didn’t have a passing touchdown. But he didn’t manage to pound two in with his feet and become the oldest player in NFL history to score multiple rushing touchdowns in a game. And although they got a few hurries and a couple of knockdowns, they defensive front only recorded one sack. Nugent also missed a field goal …
You can bet they have been back at drills to tighten up the ship. I mean, it’s expected that a team that is dominating everyone so hard will start to get a little complacent. They are likely to show up crisp and ready to play at MetLife in Week 7, with all sloppiness cleaned up.
Just how good is the Patriots defense? They’ve only allowed 27 points this year. 21 of the 48 total points that have been scored against the Pats were turnovers that were ran in for 6 points and the PAT after. So, yeah. It’s one of the best defenses the league has ever seen. If they keep on pace, they finish the season with the least points scored in the history of the NFL.
Special Teams have also played a major role in New England’s dominance. So much so that in Fantasy Football. The Patriots Defense/Special Teams have outscored many of the top starting stars, including Tom Brady.
Fantasy Points-Wise, New England’s Defense/Special Teams has averaged 20.3 points per game. Tom Terrific is averaging 20. This number is also better than stars such as Dalvin Cook, Carson Wentz, Ezekiel Elliott Julio Jones, Alvin Kamara, Travis Kelce, and Aaron Rodgers … which is absolutely mind-boggling. Much like the Dolphins are on track to becoming the worst team in modern history, the Patriots defense is on pace for going down in the history books as one of the toughest – or perhaps even the toughest– of all time. They have a tough stretch coming up between weeks 9 through 14 but once that is over, they finish their season with the Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills – who they already held to just 10 points– then finish super soft with the tank-for-Tagovoiloa Dolphins.
With all this said, the Jets are not one of these tougher offenses that are going to challenge this elite Patriots defense and you better believe this is on their minds as they head into Week 7. They are going to want to dominate when and where that can so that they can not only have a perfect season but make the history books.
Take the Patriots to cover the spread. The defense won’t allow more than a touchdown and the Pats offense should continue to keep their average output of around 30 points per game up against this weak-ish Jets defense.