Padres vs. Marlins Prediction, Betting Tips & Picks 5/7/2022

by | May 7, 2022

The Miami Marlins (12-14) hope to avoid their seventh straight defeat when they visit the San Diego Padres (18-9) Saturday at 8:40 PM ET. The Padres are listed as -131 favorites, while the Marlins are +111 underdogs as they try to snap their losing skid. San Diego’s Sean Manaea and Miami’s Pablo Lopez have been named the starters for this contest.

Padres vs. Marlins Spread and Betting Line

Padres vs Marlins Betting Information
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds
Padres -131 +111 6.5 -116 -104 -1.5 +172 -206

Computer Predictions for Padres vs. Marlins

Our computer pick: Miami Marlins (+111) and Over (6.5)

Padres vs. Marlins Game Info

  • San Diego Padres probable starting pitcher: Sean Manaea
  • Miami Marlins probable starting pitcher: Pablo López
  • Game Day: Saturday, May 7, 2022
  • Game Time: 8:40 PM ET
  • Location: San Diego, California
  • Stadium: PETCO Park

San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Pitching Matchup

Manaea López
5 GS 5
2-2 W-L 3-1
3.60 ERA 1.61
30.0 IP 28.0
11 BB 6
30 SO 30

Padres Starter Sean Manaea

  • Manaea gets the start for the Padres, his sixth of the season. He is 2-2 with a 3.60 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 30 innings pitched.
  • His last appearance came on Saturday against the Pittsburgh Pirates, when the left-hander went 6 2/3 innings, surrendering three earned runs while allowing five hits.
  • The 30-year-old has amassed an ERA of 3.60, with 9.0 strikeouts per nine innings, in five games this season. Opposing hitters have a .193 batting average against him.
  • Manaea heads into this matchup with four quality starts under his belt this year.
  • Manaea has pitched five or more innings in a game four times this year entering this outing.
  • He will take the hill against a Marlins team that is hitting .232 as a unit (16th in MLB). It is also slugging a collective .366 (17th in MLB) with 22 total home runs (17th in MLB).
  • This season, the 30-year-old ranks 50th in ERA (3.60), 34th in WHIP (1.067), and 24th in K/9 (9.0) among qualifying pitchers.

Marlins Starter Pablo López

  • The Marlins will send Lopez (3-1) to the mound for his sixth start this season.
  • The right-hander last pitched on Monday, when he gave up four earned runs and allowed six hits in 4 2/3 innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
  • The 26-year-old has pitched in five games this season with an ERA of 1.61 and 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings, with an opponent batting average of .190.
  • He has earned a quality start two times in five starts this season.
  • In five starts, Lopez has pitched through or past the fifth inning four times. He has a season average of 5.2 frames per outing.
  • The Padres have scored 124 runs this season, which ranks third in MLB. They are batting .225 for the campaign with 24 home runs, 13th in the league.
  • Among qualified pitchers in the majors this campaign, the 26-year-old ranks sixth in ERA (1.61), 13th in WHIP (.893), and 18th in K/9 (9.6).

Padres Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Padres have entered the game as favorites 21 times this season and won 15, or 71.4%, of those games.
  • San Diego is 13-4 this season when entering a game favored by -131 or more on the moneyline.
  • The moneyline for this contest implies a 56.7% chance of a victory for the Padres.
  • San Diego and its opponents have hit the over in 13 of their 28 games with a total this season.
  • The Padres are 16-12-0 ATS in their 28 games with a spread this season.

Marlins Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Marlins have been chosen as underdogs in 12 games this year and have walked away with the win five times (41.7%) in those games.
  • This season, Miami has come away with a win three times in six chances when named as an underdog of at least +111 or longer on the moneyline.
  • The Marlins have an implied victory probability of 47.4% according to the moneyline set by oddsmakers for this matchup.
  • Contests with Miami have gone over the total set by bookmakers in 11 of 26 chances this season.
  • The Marlins are 13-13-0 against the spread in their 26 games that had a posted line this season.

Padres Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Not only does Manny Machado lead the Padres in hitting with his .382 average, he also paces the squad with seven home runs and 21 RBI.
  • Machado’s home runs place him sixth in MLB, and he ranks fifth in RBI.
  • Machado has collected a hit in two games in a row. During his last five outings he is hitting .368 with three home runs, four walks and six RBI.
  • Eric Hosmer has eight doubles, three home runs and 13 walks while hitting .371.
  • Hosmer ranks 63rd in home runs and 15th in RBI in the majors.
  • Hosmer enters this matchup looking for his seventh game in a row with a hit. During his last 10 outings he is batting .364 with two doubles, three home runs, 11 walks and 13 RBI.
  • Jurickson Profar is hitting .161 with five doubles, five home runs and 17 walks.
  • Jake Cronenworth has two doubles, two triples, two home runs and 16 walks while batting .202.
Name GP BA OBP SLG HR RBI H
Manny Machado 27 .382 .458 .657 7 21 39
Eric Hosmer 25 .371 .451 .562 3 18 33
Jurickson Profar 26 .161 .302 .391 5 16 14
Jake Cronenworth 27 .202 .319 .323 2 14 20
Ha-Seong Kim 21 .234 .347 .469 3 11 15

Marlins Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Jazz Chisholm leads the Marlins in home runs (four), runs batted in (19) and has posted a team-best batting average of .321.
  • Among all batters in the big leagues, Chisholm’s home run total ranks 35th and his RBI tally ranks 10th.
  • Chisholm carries a nine-game hitting streak into this matchup. In his last 10 outings he is batting .316 with two doubles, a triple, four walks and four RBI.
  • Jesus Aguilar has a double, three home runs and 14 walks while batting .279.
  • Aguilar ranks 63rd in homers and 41st in RBI among all major league hitters this year.
  • Joey Wendle is batting .273 with six doubles, a home run and five walks.
  • Jesus Sanchez is hitting .244 with three doubles, two triples, three home runs and six walks.
Name GP BA OBP SLG HR RBI H
Jazz Chisholm 22 .321 .368 .615 4 19 25
Jesús Aguilar 24 .279 .369 .395 3 14 24
Joey Wendle 20 .273 .333 .409 1 8 18
Jesús Sánchez 25 .244 .306 .422 3 12 22
Jon Berti 17 .300 .440 .550 2 4 12

Betting Tips for Padres vs. Marlins

After digging through all of the key statistics and trends for this matchup, our best bet is the Marlins on the moneyline at +111. Our computer picks see the scoring going over the total of 6.5 runs.

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