Padres vs. Marlins Prediction, Betting Tips & Picks 5/6/2022

by | May 6, 2022

The San Diego Padres (17-9) will look to Manny Machado, who is coming off a two-homer game, to lead them in a matchup with the Miami Marlins (12-13) Friday at 9:40 PM ET. The Padres are -127 favorites for the contest, according to sportsbooks. Yu Darvish takes the mound for San Diego while Sandy Alcantara is Miami’s starter for the contest.

Padres vs. Marlins Spread and Betting Line

Padres vs Marlins Betting Information
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds
Padres -127 +108 6.5 -115 -105 -1.5 +176 -213

Computer Predictions for Padres vs. Marlins

Our computer pick: Miami Marlins (+108) and Over (6.5)

Padres vs. Marlins Game Info

  • San Diego Padres probable starting pitcher: Yu Darvish
  • Miami Marlins probable starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara
  • Game Day: Friday, May 6, 2022
  • Game Time: 9:40 PM ET
  • Location: San Diego, California
  • Stadium: PETCO Park

San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Pitching Matchup

Darvish Alcantara
5 GS 5
2-1 W-L 2-1
4.44 ERA 2.90
26.1 IP 31.0
10 BB 14
25 SO 26

Padres Starter Yu Darvish

  • The Padres will send Darvish (2-1) to make his sixth start of the season. He is 2-1 with a 4.44 ERA and 25 strikeouts through 26 1/3 innings pitched.
  • The right-hander last appeared on Friday against the Pittsburgh Pirates, when he tossed six innings, allowing three earned runs while giving up eight hits.
  • The 35-year-old has an ERA of 4.44, with 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings, in five games this season. Opposing hitters have a .214 batting average against him.
  • Darvish is aiming for his fourth quality start in a row.
  • Darvish is aiming for his fourth straight outing lasting five or more innings. He averages 5.1 innings per appearance on the mound.
  • The opposing Marlins offense has the 16th-ranked slugging percentage (.370) and ranks 17th in MLB play with 21 home runs. It has a collective .234 batting average, and is 14th in MLB with 194 total hits and 18th in MLB play scoring 99 runs.
  • This season, the 35-year-old ranks 54th in ERA (4.44), 41st in WHIP (1.177), and 27th in K/9 (8.5) among pitchers who qualify.

Marlins Starter Sandy Alcantara

  • Alcantara (2-1) will take the mound for the Marlins, his sixth start of the season.
  • The right-hander’s last start was on Sunday, when he tossed 5 2/3 innings while giving up five earned runs on six hits in a matchup with the Seattle Mariners.
  • The 26-year-old has pitched in five games this season with an ERA of 2.90, a 1.857 strikeout to walk ratio and a WHIP of 1.290.
  • He has started five games this season, earning a quality start (6 or more IP, 3 or fewer ER) in three of them.
  • Alcantara will look to pitch five or more innings for the sixth start in a row.
  • The Padres are batting .227 this season, 20th in MLB. They have a team slugging percentage of .369 (17th in the league) with 24 home runs.
  • Among qualified Major League pitchers this season, the 26-year-old’s 2.90 ERA ranks 30th, 1.290 WHIP ranks 53rd, and 7.5 K/9 ranks 39th.

Padres Betting Picks & Insights

  • This season, the Padres have won 14 out of the 20 games, or 70%, in which they’ve been favored.
  • San Diego has entered 16 games this season favored by -127 or more and is 12-4 in those contests.
  • The sportsbooks’ moneyline implies a 55.9% chance of a victory for the Padres.
  • So far this season, San Diego and its opponents have hit the over in 13 of their 27 games with a total.
  • In 27 games with a spread this season, the Padres are 16-11-0 ATS.

Marlins Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Marlins have been chosen as underdogs in 11 games this year and have walked away with the win five times (45.5%) in those games.
  • This season, Miami has been victorious four times in seven chances when named as an underdog of at least +108 or longer on the moneyline.
  • The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Marlins have a 48.1% chance of walking away with the win.
  • Miami and their opponents have hit the over in 11 of their 25 games with a total set by oddsmakers this season.
  • The Marlins are 12-13-0 against the spread in their 25 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.

Padres Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Machado leads the Padres in home runs (seven) and runs batted in (20).
  • Among all MLB hitters, Machado ranks second in batting average, fourth in on-base percentage, and third in slugging.
  • Eric Hosmer has a club-high .376 batting average.
  • Hosmer ranks 62nd in homers in baseball, and 18th in RBI.
  • Hosmer carries a five-game streak with at least one hit into this matchup. During his last five outings he is batting .294 with a double, a home run, four walks and six RBI.
  • Jurickson Profar is batting .167 with five doubles, five home runs and 16 walks.
  • Jake Cronenworth is hitting .208 with two doubles, two triples, two home runs and 15 walks.
  • Cronenworth is riding a two-game hitting streak into this one. During his last five outings he is batting .190 with a double, two walks and two RBI.
Manny Machado 26 .374 .447 .657 7 20 37
Eric Hosmer 24 .376 .459 .565 3 17 32
Jurickson Profar 25 .167 .304 .405 5 16 14
Jake Cronenworth 26 .208 .322 .333 2 14 20
Ha-Seong Kim 20 .246 .352 .492 3 11 15

Marlins Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Jazz Chisholm paces the Marlins in home runs (four), runs batted in (19) and has recorded a team-best batting average of .324.
  • Among all hitters in MLB, Chisholm’s home run total ranks 34th and his RBI tally is 10th.
  • Chisholm carries an eight-game hitting streak into this matchup. In his last 10 games he is hitting .375 with three doubles, a triple, a home run, four walks and seven RBI.
  • Joey Wendle is hitting .286 with six doubles, a home run and five walks.
  • Wendle is currently 173rd in homers and 148th in RBI in the big leagues.
  • Jesus Aguilar has a double, two home runs and 14 walks while batting .280.
  • Jon Berti is hitting .306 with two doubles, a triple, two home runs and nine walks.
Jazz Chisholm 21 .324 .373 .635 4 19 24
Joey Wendle 19 .286 .348 .429 1 8 18
Jesús Aguilar 23 .280 .374 .366 2 12 23
Jon Berti 16 .306 .457 .583 2 4 11
Jesús Sánchez 24 .244 .309 .430 3 12 21

Betting Tips for Padres vs. Marlins

We have the Marlins on the moneyline at +108 on the moneyline as our best bet in this game after analyzing all of the key statistics and trends for this matchup. Our computer picks see the scoring going over the total of 6.5 runs.

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