Padres vs. Marlins Prediction, Betting Tips & Picks 5/5/2022

by | May 5, 2022

Following a big two-homer game in a loss to the Diamondbacks, Jon Berti leads the Miami Marlins (12-12) into action as +103 underdogs against the San Diego Padres (16-9). First pitch from PETCO Park at 9:40 PM ET on Thursday. San Diego’s Nick Martinez and Miami’s Jesus Luzardo have been named the starters for this contest.

Padres vs. Marlins Spread and Betting Line

Padres vs Marlins Betting Information
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds
Padres -123 +103 7 -104 -116 -1.5 +156 -155

Computer Predictions for Padres vs. Marlins

Our computer pick: Miami Marlins (+103) and Over (7)

Padres vs. Marlins Game Info

  • San Diego Padres probable starting pitcher: Nick Martinez
  • Miami Marlins probable starting pitcher: Jesús Luzardo
  • Game Day: Thursday, May 5, 2022
  • Game Time: 9:40 PM ET
  • Location: San Diego, California
  • Stadium: PETCO Park

San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Pitching Matchup

Martinez Luzardo
4 GS 4
1-2 W-L 2-1
4.12 ERA 3.10
19.2 IP 20.1
12 BB 9
18 SO 28

Padres Starter Nick Martinez

  • Martinez makes the start for the Padres, his fifth of the season. He is 1-2 with a 4.12 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 19 2/3 innings pitched.
  • In his last outing on Thursday against the Cincinnati Reds, the righty threw five innings, allowing two earned runs while surrendering five hits.
  • In four games this season, the 31-year-old has an ERA of 4.12, with 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Opponents are hitting .288 against him.
  • He will take the mound against a Marlins team that is hitting .237 as a unit (12th in MLB). It is also slugging a collective .377 (13th in MLB) with 21 total home runs (15th in MLB).

Marlins Starter Jesús Luzardo

  • The Marlins’ Luzardo (2-1) will make his fifth start of the season.
  • The left-hander’s last appearance was on Saturday, when he threw six innings against the Seattle Mariners, giving up one earned run while allowing two hits.
  • The 24-year-old has pitched in four games this season with an ERA of 3.10, a 3.111 strikeout to walk ratio and a WHIP of 1.082.
  • In four starts this season, he’s earned one quality start.
  • Luzardo has two starts in a row of five innings or more.
  • The Padres rank first in MLB with 119 runs scored this season. They have a .228 batting average this campaign with 22 home runs (13th in the league).

Padres Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Padres have been favorites in 20 games this season and won 14 (70%) of those contests.
  • San Diego has entered 16 games this season favored by -123 or more and is 12-4 in those contests.
  • The sportsbooks’ moneyline implies a 55.2% chance of a victory for the Padres.
  • So far this season, San Diego and its opponents have hit the over in 13 of their 26 games with a total.
  • The Padres are 15-11-0 against the spread in their 26 chances this season.

Marlins Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Marlins have won in five, or 45.5%, of the 11 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs in this year.
  • This year, Miami has won four of eight games when listed as at least +103 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The Marlins have an implied victory probability of 49.3% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
  • Miami and their opponents have gone over in 11 of their 24 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
  • The Marlins have posted a record of 12-12-0 against the spread this season.

Padres Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Manny Machado paces the Padres in home runs (five) and runs batted in (18).
  • Among all MLB hitters, Machado ranks third in batting average, sixth in on-base percentage, and eighth in slugging.
  • Eric Hosmer is hitting .378 to lead his team.
  • Including all MLB hitters, Hosmer ranks 55th in homers and 13th in RBI.
  • Hosmer has four games in a row with at least one hit. During his last five outings he is hitting .235 with a double, a home run, five walks and six RBI.
  • Jurickson Profar paces the Padres with five home runs.
  • Jake Cronenworth is hitting .207 with two doubles, two triples, two home runs and 15 walks.
Manny Machado 25 .365 .436 .594 5 18 35
Eric Hosmer 23 .378 .457 .573 3 17 31
Jurickson Profar 24 .173 .306 .420 5 16 14
Jake Cronenworth 25 .207 .324 .337 2 14 19
Ha-Seong Kim 19 .259 .368 .517 3 11 15

Marlins Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Jazz Chisholm leads the squad with a batting average of .329, and leads the Marlins in home runs, with four and runs batted in with 19.
  • In all of the majors, Chisholm ranks 31st in homers and sixth in RBI.
  • Chisholm carries a seven-game hitting streak into this matchup. During his last 10 games he is hitting .359 with three doubles, a triple, a home run, four walks and seven RBI.
  • Joey Wendle is hitting .300 with six doubles, a home run and five walks.
  • Wendle is currently 166th in homers and 135th in RBI in the big leagues.
  • Jesus Sanchez is batting .256 with three doubles, two triples, three home runs and six walks.
  • Jesus Aguilar is hitting .282 with a double, two home runs and 14 walks.
Jazz Chisholm 20 .329 .380 .657 4 19 23
Joey Wendle 18 .300 .364 .450 1 8 18
Jesús Sánchez 23 .256 .322 .451 3 12 21
Jesús Aguilar 22 .282 .379 .372 2 11 22
Jon Berti 15 .314 .467 .600 2 4 11

Betting Tips for Padres vs. Marlins

We have the Marlins on the moneyline at +103 on the moneyline as our best bet in this contest after looking at all of the key trends and stats for this matchup. Our computer prediction sees the scoring going over the total of 7 runs.

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