We had a particularly tough weekend in Week 7 of the NFL season. We call that right about Minnesota handily taking care of the New York Jets, but the wheels fell off from there. We called for the over between Kansas City and Cincinnati, expecting the bangles to at least get 17 points, but they could not deliver. That cost us our field-goal and we missed all three extra points finishing the weekend 6-6 in our scoring.
This weekend we look to rebound with a series of games that we know should get you much better results than we had last weekend. This starts with a great battle between AFC North opponents as well as what should be a high-scoring affair between the Green Bay Packers and the Los Angeles Rams.
- Touchdown – Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Spread: Pittsburgh (-8.0)
Total: Over/Under – 50.0
The Steelers are coming off of a bye week, and this seems to have emboldened a lot of oddsmakers to believe that Pittsburgh will dominate this contest. Cleveland enters 2-4-1 after losing in overtime, their fourth game where an extra session was needed this season.
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Cleveland has not won on the road since defeating Baltimore three years ago, but this is a team that has traditionally played Pittsburgh well. It starts with the fact that Cleveland may be two games under .500, but they are 5-2 against the spread this season.
The line began with Pittsburgh favored by seven but has risen as the week has gone along. In the last four meetings between these two teams, Cleveland is 3-0-1 ATS and Pittsburgh has not won by more than four points since back in 2016. Even bad Cleveland Browns teams figured out a way to keep these games close, and this is not a bad team now.
The Browns tied the Steelers earlier this year 21-21 and there is a lot of reason to believe that this will be a similar game. It starts with the fact that Pittsburgh is 1-7 ATS in their last eight games at home and they are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against AFC North opponents. Plus, they have gone 0-5 against the spread following their bye week in their last five such situations. There is really no reason to believe Pittsburgh is going to dominate this game.
How You Score: Take Cleveland and the points (-110)
- Field Goal – Green Bay Packers vs. Los Angeles Rams
Spread: Los Angeles Rams -9.5
Total: Over/Under – 56.5
Green Bay is coming off of a bye week but head straight into the teeth of the Dragon as they travel out west to take on the Los Angeles Rams. The Packers have covered in each of their last five meetings but they have not faced the Rams this season.
Los Angeles has covered in only one of their last four games, and that has been in similar types of spreads. 9.5 points is a lot, especially against a team led by Aaron Rodgers so it would make sense to believe that the game is going to be a lot closer.
However, there are too many unknowns to go with the spread. The more sensible thing to do would be to look at the total. These two teams combined for an average of 58 points per game, but only give up on average 42 combined. However, neither team has faced an offense like the one they will face on Sunday.
The Rams have scored better than 30 points in six of their seven games this season and will likely come up with 35 points in this game. That means that Green Bay is going to have to come up with at least 22 which they have reached in five of their six games this year.
Green Bay has gone over in 23 of their last 29 games while Los Angeles has gone over in seven of their last 10 games following a victory.
How You Score: Take the Over 56.5 (-110)
- Extra Points – Three Games You Want to Take a Look At
The could be the New Orleans Saints at the Minnesota Vikings. This game is too close to call, so we look to the spread in this contest as well, set at 51.5. Both of these teams have red-hot quarterbacks, both of which are coming off two touchdown performances as they have combined for over 4000 yards passing between the two of them.
While it is true that the defenses for both teams have improved, consider that New Orleans has gone over in six of their last seven games against NFC opponents while Minnesota has gone over in each of their last five games against teams with a winning record.
How You Score – Go over 51.5 (-110)
Another great matchup this weekend will be when the Baltimore Ravens take on the Carolina Panthers. Carolina is favored by two in this game, which makes this game kind of a tossup, one too close to call. This is why we focus on the total.
This is a game that pits two of the better defensive teams in the NFL, as Baltimore is allowing 14.4 points per game on average and Carolina 21.8. The Ravens have gone under in five straight games while Carolina has gone under in four of their last five in October.
How You Score – under 43.5 (-110)
The red-hot Kansas City Chiefs welcome the Denver Broncos this Sunday, a team they have already beaten once this season. Kansas City is favored by 10, which is a large amount against a division rival, but they have covered their last five games in October and are 11-1 in their last 12 against the spread. Meanwhile, Denver is 2-11 in their last 13 games on the road against the spread.
The Broncos quarterback situation is still a mess while Kansas City has one of the best young quarterbacks in the league. The Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings between these two teams.
How You Score – Go with Kansas City and give the points (-10, -110)