It was nearly a clean sweep in Week 5, as we earned 11 of 12 possible points. The Dolphins and Bengals went under, the Chargers manhandled the Raiders, Green Bay and Detroit went over and Cleveland beat Baltimore. The only point we missed came when we said to go over 45 between Minnesota and Philadelphia and they went one point under. Still, a great week all the way around.
This week we look for the big six in another over/under contest as well as speculate on if the Packers woes will continue. Plus, how can we avoid what should be a classic contest between the Kansas City Chiefs and the New England Patriots?
- Touchdown – Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Spread: Atlanta -3.5
Total: Over/Under – 57.5
This is a contest that is simply too good to avoid. Tampa Bay has the second-worst defense in the NFL in yards allowed while Atlanta has the fifth worst. Tampa Bay has given up the most points per game this season at 34.8 while Atlanta has given up the second most at 32.6. Tampa Bay is sixth in points per game at 28.0 and Atlanta is ninth at 26.6.
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When you put those kinds of numbers together it is easy to conclude that this game is going to go over 57.5. In fact, it would be surprising to see the total somewhere in the 70s. Plus, there are some other factors that should help to elevate your confidence in this being a high-scoring affair.
Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston looked pedestrian in his return two weeks ago, not even throwing for 150 yards. However, he’s had a bye week to help prepare for this contest and to get additional reps, which should make him a lot sharper and a lot more in sync with an offense that was already quite formidable before his return.
Atlanta has suffered losses in their last three games, but that has not been the fault of quarterback Matt Ryan. He has thrown for nearly 1100 yards and nine touchdowns in the last three contests. His major issue has been 12 sacks, so if his offensive line can give him any kind of time the Falcons are clearly capable of scoring 35 points in this game.
How You Score: Go Over (O/U57.5, -110)
- Field Goal – San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers
Spread: Green Bay Packers -9.5
Total: Over/Under – 46.5
The Monday night matchup pits the 2-2-1 Green Bay Packers against the 1-4 San Francisco 49ers. This contest has all the makings of a dud, which would make many believe that it will be a one-sided affair, but we disagree.
It is true that San Francisco has lost three straight games, but none of those losses have been by more than 11 points, and they lost by two to the Los Angeles Chargers two weeks ago. Traditionally, Green Bay has been good at home against the spread, going 5-1 against teams with a losing record on the road, however, they have struggled in this category of late. The Packers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight overall and are 1-6 in their last seven against NFC teams against the spread.
The Packers will likely win this game, but 9.5 points is far too many to give.
How You Score: Take the Points and Take San Francisco (+9.5, -110)
- Extra Points – Three Games You Want to Take a Look At
The Chicago Bears are finding their groove behind second-year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. The Bears are coming off of a bye week, while Miami is recovering from their second straight drubbing, this time by the Cincinnati Bengals, 27-17. After winning their first three games of the season, the Dolphins have been exposed. Look for Chicago to roll in this game.
How You Score – Go with the Bears (-3, -120)
We don’t usually like to go with the team giving away so many points but, if we are honest, the Buffalo Bills have nothing that should want you to put your trust in them. Three times this season they have scored less than 14 points, and twice had three or less. This is an offense that is completely dysfunctional, and Houston has a defense that could make this game get ugly quickly.
Add to it the fact that the Texans have an outstanding young quarterback in Deshaun Watson. The second-year starter is regaining his form after missing the last half of the season with a knee injury. He’s thrown for 1621 yards and eight touchdowns through five games and is just too much for Buffalo to be able to contain.
How You Score – Give the Points and Take the Texans (-10, -110)
The Los Angeles Rams are starting to look like a team that may be getting itself on a historic run. They are undefeated and have a potent offense, averaging 34.6 points per game and an outstanding defense, allowing 19.6 points per contest, ranked sixth in the NFL. They have big-time playmakers in running back Todd Gurley and quarterback Jared Goff, making it extremely difficult to scheme for this team.
Denver is still looking to create an identity for this team, and facing the Rams right now is not a way to establish that.
How You Score – Take the Rams and Give the Points (-7, +100)