Marlins vs. Nationals Prediction, Betting Tips & Picks 5/18/2022

by | May 18, 2022

The Miami Marlins (17-19) hope to complete a three-game sweep of the Washington Nationals (12-26) when the teams meet at 6:40 PM ET Wednesday. The Marlins are -186 favorites to keep the Nationals out of the win column in the series. Miami’s Pablo Lopez gets the start, and he’ll go against Washington’s Josiah Gray.

Marlins vs. Nationals Spread and Betting Line

Marlins vs Nationals Betting Information
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds
Marlins -186 +158 7.5 +106 -127 -1.5 +120 -143

Computer Predictions for Marlins vs. Nationals

Our computer pick: Washington Nationals (+158) and Over (7.5)

Marlins vs. Nationals Game Info

  • Miami Marlins probable starting pitcher: Pablo López
  • Washington Nationals probable starting pitcher: Josiah Gray
  • Game Day: Wednesday, May 18, 2022
  • Game Time: 6:40 PM ET
  • Location: Miami, Florida
  • Stadium: loanDepot park

Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals Pitching Matchup

López Gray
7 GS 7
4-1 W-L 4-3
1.26 ERA 4.34
43.0 IP 37.1
8 BB 18
46 SO 39

Marlins Starter Pablo López

  • The Marlins are sending Lopez (4-1) out to make his eighth start of the season. He is 4-1 with a 1.26 ERA and 46 strikeouts through 43 innings pitched.
  • His most recent appearance was on Friday against the Milwaukee Brewers, when the righty threw seven innings, surrendering one earned run while giving up three hits.
  • In seven games this season, the 26-year-old has an ERA of 1.26, with 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings. Opponents are hitting .175 against him.
  • Lopez is aiming for his third quality start in a row.
  • Lopez is seeking his third straight appearance lasting five or more innings. He averages 6.0 frames per appearance on the hill.
  • He will face a Nationals offense that ranks 15th in the league with 153 runs while batting .248 as a unit. It has a collective .356 slugging percentage (21st in MLB play) and has hit a total of 26 home runs (25th in MLB).
  • Lopez has pitched six innings without giving up an earned run on three hits, while striking out six against the Nationals this season.
  • The 26-year-old ranks first in ERA (1.26), third in WHIP (.814), and 17th in K/9 (9.6) among qualifying pitchers in MLB action this season.

Nationals Starter Josiah Gray

  • The Nationals’ Gray (4-3) will make his eighth start of the season.
  • The right-hander’s last appearance was on Friday, when he threw six innings against the Houston Astros, giving up six earned runs while allowing six hits.
  • The 24-year-old has pitched to a 4.34 ERA this season with 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings compared to 4.3 walks per nine across seven games.
  • In seven starts this season, he’s earned one quality start.
  • Gray has six starts in a row of five innings or more.
  • The Marlins are batting .244 this season, eighth in MLB. They have a team slugging percentage of .396 (eighth in the league) with 38 home runs.
  • This season, the right-hander has pitched against the Marlins in one game, and they have gone 7-for-24 with two doubles, a home run and four RBI over 5 2/3 innings.

Marlins Betting Picks & Insights

  • This season, the Marlins have won 10 out of the 19 games, or 52.6%, in which they’ve been favored.
  • Miami has played as a favorite of -186 or more twice this season and split those games.
  • The implied probability of a win from the Marlins, based on the moneyline, is 65%.
  • Miami and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 17 of their 36 opportunities.
  • The Marlins have an ATS record of 20-16-0 in 36 games with a spread this season.

Nationals Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Nationals have been chosen as underdogs in 33 games this year and have walked away with the win 10 times (30.3%) in those games.
  • Washington has a win-loss record of 3-6 when favored by +158 or worse by bookmakers this year.
  • The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Nationals have a 38.8% chance of walking away with the win.
  • Contests with Washington have gone over the total set by bookmakers in 17 of 38 chances this season.
  • The Nationals have posted a record of 14-24-0 against the spread this season.

Marlins Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Jazz Chisholm paces the Marlins with 25 runs batted in while racking up a team-high batting average of .292.
  • In all of MLB, Chisholm ranks 31st in home runs and 10th in RBI.
  • Jesus Aguilar has five doubles, five home runs and 14 walks while hitting .276.
  • Aguilar ranks 46th in home runs in baseball, and 61st in RBI.
  • Aguilar has two straight games with at least one hit. During his last five outings he is hitting .318 with two doubles, two home runs and three RBI.
  • Jorge Soler has put up a team-high seven home runs.
  • Soler has at least one base hit in seven straight games. During his last 10 outings he is batting .270 with a double, four home runs, three walks and 10 RBI.
  • Miguel Rojas is batting .211 with four doubles, a triple, two home runs and four walks.
Jazz Chisholm 30 .292 .328 .566 6 25 33
Jesús Aguilar 34 .276 .340 .433 5 17 35
Jorge Soler 35 .195 .287 .391 7 18 26
Miguel Rojas 31 .211 .246 .321 2 7 23
Jesús Sánchez 33 .212 .273 .373 4 13 25

Nationals Leaders & Batting Stats

  • The Nationals are lead in runs batted in by Josh Bell with a mark of 22, he also leads the team in hitting, posting an average of .328.
  • Bell’s home run total places him 68th in the big leagues, and he is 20th in RBI.
  • Juan Soto’s eight home runs are a team-high total.
  • Soto is 12th in home runs and 155th in RBI among all batters in the big leagues.
  • Yadiel Hernandez is batting .330 with eight doubles, three home runs and seven walks.
  • Maikel Franco is batting .257 with 10 doubles, three home runs and six walks.
Josh Bell 37 .328 .418 .473 4 22 43
Juan Soto 38 .246 .381 .471 8 11 34
Yadiel Hernandez 28 .330 .370 .500 3 20 33
Maikel Franco 38 .257 .283 .389 3 21 37
Nelson Cruz 34 .188 .271 .289 4 20 24

Betting Tips for Marlins vs. Nationals

After taking a look at all of the key statistics and trends for this matchup, our best bet is the Nationals on the moneyline at +158. Our computer prediction sees the scoring going over the total of 7.5 runs.

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