Marlins vs. Diamondbacks Prediction, Betting Tips & Picks 5/3/2022

by | May 3, 2022

The Miami Marlins (12-10) are set to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (11-13) Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET. The Marlins are listed as -155 favorites by sportsbooks, while the underdog Diamondbacks have +135 odds for the contest. Trevor Rogers will get the ball for Miami while Arizona counter with Humberto Castellanos.

Marlins vs. Diamondbacks Spread and Betting Line

Marlins vs Diamondbacks Betting Information
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds
Marlins -155 +135 7.5 +100 -120 -1.5 +135 -155

Computer Predictions for Marlins vs. Diamondbacks

Our computer pick: Arizona Diamondbacks (+135) and Over (7.5)

Marlins vs. Diamondbacks Game Info

  • Miami Marlins probable starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers
  • Arizona Diamondbacks probable starting pitcher: Humberto Castellanos
  • Game Day: Tuesday, May 3, 2022
  • Game Time: 6:40 PM ET
  • Location: Miami, Florida
  • Stadium: loanDepot park

Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks Pitching Matchup

Rogers Castellanos
4 GS 3
1-3 W-L 1-1
5.09 ERA 5.79
17.2 IP 14.0
9 BB 6
14 SO 8

Marlins Starter Trevor Rogers

  • The Marlins will send Rogers (1-3) out to make his fifth start of the season. He is 1-3 with a 5.09 ERA and 14 strikeouts through 17 2/3 innings pitched.
  • In his last time out on Thursday, the lefty threw six innings against the Washington Nationals, allowing one earned run while surrendering two hits.
  • In four games this season, the 24-year-old has an ERA of 5.09, with 7.1 strikeouts per nine innings. Opponents are hitting .246 against him.
  • Rogers is seeking his third straight outing lasting five or more innings. He averages 4.1 frames per appearance on the hill.
  • He will take the mound against a Diamondbacks offense that ranks 29th in MLB with 141 total hits (on a .185 batting average). The squad also slugs a collective .332 (25th in MLB) with 25 total home runs (sixth in MLB).

Diamondbacks Starter Humberto Castellanos

  • The Diamondbacks will hand the ball to Castellanos (1-1) for his fourth start of the season.
  • The right-hander last pitched on Thursday, when he gave up five earned runs and allowed five hits in two innings against the St. Louis Cardinals.
  • The 24-year-old has pitched in five games this season with an ERA of 5.79, a 1.333 strikeout to walk ratio and a WHIP of 1.500.
  • In three starts this season, Castellanos has lasted five or more innings one time, with an average of 2.2 innings per appearance.
  • The Marlins are batting .237 this season, 12th in MLB. They have a team slugging percentage of .375 (17th in the league) with 18 home runs.

Marlins Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Marlins have been favorites in 11 games this season and won seven (63.6%) of those contests.
  • Miami has played as a favorite of -155 or more once this season and lost that game.
  • The oddsmakers’ moneyline implies a 60.8% chance of a victory for the Marlins.
  • So far this season, Miami and its opponents have hit the over in nine of their 22 games with a total.
  • The Marlins have an ATS record of 12-10-0 in 22 games with a spread this season.

Diamondbacks Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Diamondbacks have come away with 13 wins in the 26 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
  • This season, Arizona has come away with a win 10 times in 18 chances when named as an underdog of at least +135 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The Diamondbacks have an implied victory probability of 42.6% according to the moneyline set by sportsbooks for this matchup.
  • Arizona’s games have gone over the total in eight of their 26 opportunities.
  • The Diamondbacks are 16-10-0 against the spread in their 26 games that had a posted line this season.

Marlins Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Jazz Chisholm has a team-high batting average of .306, while pacing the Marlins in home runs (four) and runs batted in (17).
  • Including all MLB batters, Chisholm is 20th in batting average, 46th in on-base percentage, and third in slugging.
  • Chisholm has collected a hit in five straight games. During his last five outings he is hitting .333 with a double, a triple, two walks and two RBI.
  • Joey Wendle is batting .300 with six doubles, a home run and five walks.
  • Jesus Sanchez is batting .266 with three doubles, two triples, three home runs and six walks.
  • Jesus Aguilar has a home run and 14 walks while hitting .246.
  • Aguilar has recorded at least one hit in three straight games. In his last five games he is batting .400 with a home run, five walks and four RBI.
Jazz Chisholm 18 .306 .357 .661 4 17 19
Joey Wendle 18 .300 .364 .450 1 8 18
Jesús Sánchez 21 .266 .333 .468 3 12 21
Jesús Aguilar 20 .246 .360 .290 1 8 17
Jorge Soler 22 .176 .278 .329 3 8 15

Diamondbacks Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Daulton Varsho has put up a team-best batting average of .231 while pacing the Diamondbacks in runs batted in with a mark of 10.
  • Among all hitters in the majors, Varsho’s home run total is 24th and his RBI tally is 76th.
  • Varsho carries a four-game hitting streak into this matchup. During his last five outings he is hitting .353 with four doubles, two walks and an RBI.
  • Christian Walker has shown off his power as he paces his team with five home runs.
  • Walker ranks 15th overall in homers and 120th in RBI this season.
  • David Peralta is hitting .227 with five doubles, three home runs and eight walks.
  • Pavin Smith is hitting .258 with four doubles, a home run and nine walks.
Daulton Varsho 24 .231 .326 .436 4 10 18
Christian Walker 23 .148 .242 .370 5 8 12
David Peralta 23 .227 .294 .413 3 9 17
Pavin Smith 22 .258 .356 .371 1 8 16
Cooper Hummel 21 .156 .321 .311 2 7 7

Betting Tips for Marlins vs. Diamondbacks

We have the Diamondbacks on the moneyline at +135 on the moneyline as our best bet in this contest after digging through all of the key stats and trends for this matchup. Our computer prediction sees the scoring going over the total of 7.5 runs.

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