Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Prediction, Betting Tips & Picks – NHL Playoffs First Round Game 7

by | May 13, 2022

The Toronto Maple Leafs take the ice in the final game of the NHL Playoffs First Round against the Tampa Bay Lightning at Amalie Arena on Saturday, May 14, beginning at 7:00 PM ET. The series is tied up 3-3. The oddsmakers have made the Maple Leafs solid favorites at -125 on the moneyline, and the Lightning are at +104. Find more below on the Maple Leafs vs. Lightning betting line, injury report, head-to-head stats, best bets and more.

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Spread and Betting Line

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Betting Information
Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline
Maple Leafs -125 Lightning +104

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Game Info

  • Game Day: Saturday, May 14, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Location: Tampa, Florida
  • Arena: Amalie Arena

Computer Predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Lightning

Computer picks for Maple Leafs vs Lightning
ATS Over/Under Score Prediction
Lightning (+1.5) Over (6.5) Maple Leafs 4 Lightning 3

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Betting Trends

  • Toronto has gone 54-23 as the oddsmakers’ choice this season.
  • In 71 games with moneyline oddds lower than -125, the Maple Leafs have 50 wins.
  • There is a 55.6% chance that Toronto wins this contest, per the moneyline.

Toronto Maple Leafs Leaders

  • One of Toronto’s most productive offensives player this season is Auston Matthews, who has 106 points (60 goals, 46 assists) and plays an average of 20:36 per game.
  • Mitchell Marner has 97 points (1.3 per game), scoring 35 goals and adding 62 assists.
  • William Nylander has scored 34 goals and added 46 assists through 81 games for Toronto.
  • Jack Campbell (31-9-6) has a goals against average of 2.6 on the season, and 1307 saves. His .914 save percentage ranks 23rd in the league.

Toronto Maple Leafs Season Stats

  • The Maple Leafs offense’s 312 total goals (3.8 per game) are ranked second in the NHL this year.
  • The Maple Leafs rank 19th in total goals against, allowing 3.1 goals per game (252 total) in NHL action.
  • The squad has the league’s sixth-best goal differential at +60 this season.
  • The 63 power-play goals the Maple Leafs have put up this season have come on 231 power-play chances, ranking them fourth-best in the NHL.
  • The Maple Leafs have a league-best 27.3% power-play conversion rate this season.
  • The 13 shorthanded goals the Maple Leafs have scored this season are the most in the NHL.
  • The Maple Leafs kill 81.7% of opponent power plays, currently the eighth-best penalty-kill percentage in the NHL.
  • The Maple Leafs’ players win 55.1% of their faceoffs, leading the NHL.
  • The Maple Leafs connect on 11.0% of their shots, ranking fourth in the league.
  • The Maple Leafs’ players are looking for their first shutout win this season. As a team, they are averaging 21.3 hits and 11.9 blocked shots per game.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Betting Trends

  • The Lightning have been the underdog 15 times this season, and upset their opponent in four, or 26.7%, of those games.
  • Tampa Bay is 3-6 when oddsmakers have listed them as underdogs of +104 or longer on the moneyline.
  • Bookmakers have implied, based on the moneyline for this matchup, that the Lightning have a 49.0% chance to win.

Tampa Bay Lightning Leaders

  • Steven Stamkos is an important part of the offense for Tampa Bay, with 106 points this season. He has recorded 42 goals and 64 assists in 81 games.
  • Victor Hedman has made a major impact for Tampa Bay this season with 86 points, thanks to 20 goals and 66 assists.
  • Tampa Bay’s Nikita Kucherov has 69 points (25 goals, 44 assists) this season.
  • Tampa Bay’s Andrei Vasilevskiy is 39-18-5 this season, collecting 1712 saves and permitting 156 goals (2.5 goals against average) with a .916 save percentage (20th in the league).

Tampa Bay Lightning Season Stats

  • The Lightning’s 285 total goals (3.5 per game) are the seventh-most in the league.
  • The Lightning are one of the toughest defensive squads in the NHL this season, allowing 228 goals (2.8 per game) to rank sixth.
  • Their seventh-best goal differential is +57.
  • The Lightning have recorded 63 power-play goals this season, which are fourth-best in the NHL (on 260 power-play chances).
  • The Lightning have a 24.2% power-play conversion rate, the league’s No. 7 percentage.
  • The Lightning have scored seven shorthanded goals this season (12th among NHL teams).
  • The Lightning’s ninth-best penalty kill rate is 81.4%.
  • The Lightning have the league’s 15th-ranked faceoff win percentage (50.1%).
  • The Lightning are shooting 11.3% (third in the league).
  • The Lightning have not yet shut out an opponent this season.

Maple Leafs and Lightning Injury Report

Maple Leafs: Petr Mrazek: Out (Groin)

Lightning: None

Betting Tips for Maple Leafs vs. Lightning

After digging through all of the key trends and statistics for this matchup, our best bet is Maple Leafs on the moneyline at -125 and Lightning (+1.5) against the spread. Our computer prediction sees the scoring going over the total of 6.5 goals.

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