Maple Leafs vs. Lightning NHL First Round Prediction: Betting Tips & Best Bets

by | May 2, 2022

The Tampa Bay Lightning go on the road to play the Toronto Maple Leafs for the opening game of the NHL Playoffs First Round on Monday, May 2, beginning at 7:30 PM ET. Maple Leafs (-126) versus Lightning (+106) has a clear favorite, according to the moneyline odds. Find more below on the Maple Leafs vs. Lightning betting line, injury report, head-to-head stats, best bets and more.

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Spread and Betting Line

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Betting Information
Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline
Maple Leafs -126 Lightning +106

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Game Info

  • Game Day: Monday, May 2, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:30 PM ET
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario
  • Arena: Scotiabank Arena

Computer Predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Lightning

Computer picks for Maple Leafs vs Lightning
ATS Over/Under Score Prediction
Lightning (+1.5) Over (6.5) Maple Leafs 4 Lightning 3

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Betting Trends

  • Toronto has won 50 of its 72 games as a favorite this season.
  • Through 66 games with moneyline odds shorter than -126 this season, the Maple Leafs have won 46 times.
  • There is a 55.8% chance that Toronto wins this contest, per the moneyline.

Toronto Maple Leafs Leaders

  • Auston Matthews is one of Toronto’s leading contributors with 106 points. He has 60 goals and 46 assists this season.
  • Mitchell Marner has 97 points (1.3 per game), scoring 35 goals and adding 62 assists.
  • William Nylander’s season total of 80 points has come from 34 goals and 46 assists.
  • In 49 games, Jack Campbell has a record of 31-9-6. He has conceded 123 goals (2.64 goals against average) and has recorded 1307 saves.

Toronto Maple Leafs Season Stats

  • The Maple Leafs create the second-most goals in the league, averaging 3.8 per game for a total of 312 this season.
  • On defense, the Maple Leafs have given up 252 goals (3.1 per game) to rank 19th in NHL play.
  • With a +60 goal differential, they’re ranked sixth-best in the NHL.
  • The 63 power-play goals the Maple Leafs have put up this season have come on 231 power-play chances, ranking them fourth-best in the NHL.
  • The Maple Leafs lead the NHL with a 27.3% power-play conversion rate.
  • The 13 shorthanded goals the Maple Leafs have scored this season are the most in the NHL.
  • The Maple Leafs defeat 81.7% of opponent power plays, currently the eighth-best penalty-kill percentage in the league.
  • The Maple Leafs’ players win the highest percentage of faceoffs in the NHL at 55.1%.
  • The Maple Leafs shoot 11.0% as a team, ranked fourth-best in the league.
  • The Maple Leafs’ players are still looking for their first shutout win this season. As a team, they are averaging 21.3 hits and 11.9 blocked shots per game.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Betting Trends

  • The Lightning have been an underdog in 10 games this season, with three upset wins (30.0%).
  • Tampa Bay has a record of 1-3 in games when bookmakers list them +106 or longer on the moneyline.
  • The Lightning have a 48.5% chance to win this game (implied from the moneyline).

Tampa Bay Lightning Leaders

  • Steven Stamkos has recorded 42 goals (0.5 per game) and put up 64 assists (0.8 per game), taking 3.0 shots per game and shooting 17.4%. That makes him among the leaders for Tampa Bay with 106 total points (1.3 per game).
  • Tampa Bay’s Victor Hedman has racked up 86 total points (1.0 per game), with 20 goals and 66 assists.
  • Tampa Bay’s Nikita Kucherov has 69 points (25 goals, 44 assists) this season.
  • Andrei Vasilevskiy has a record of 39-18-5 in 63 games this season, conceding 156 goals (2.5 goals against average) with 1712 saves and a .916 save percentage, 12th in the league.

Tampa Bay Lightning Season Stats

  • The Lightning’s 285 total goals (3.5 per game) are the seventh-most in the league.
  • The Lightning have been one of the toughest defensive units in the league this season, conceding 228 goals (2.8 per game) to rank sixth.
  • Their seventh-best goal differential is +57.
  • The Lightning have recorded 63 power-play goals this season (on 260 power-play chances). That’s the fourth-most in the NHL.
  • The Lightning have the NHL’s seventh-best power-play conversion rate of 24.2%.
  • The Lightning have recorded seven shorthanded goals.
  • The 81.4% penalty-kill percentage the Lightning have registered is the league’s ninth-best rate.
  • The Lightning have the league’s 15th-ranked faceoff win percentage (50.1%).
  • The Lightning’s collective 11.3% shooting percentage ranks third in the league.
  • The Lightning have yet to shut out an opponent this season.

Maple Leafs and Lightning Injury Report

Maple Leafs: Rasmus Sandin: Out (Undisclosed), Petr Mrazek: Out (Groin), Michael Bunting: Day To Day (Undisclosed)

Lightning: None

Betting Tips for Maple Leafs vs. Lightning

The Maple Leafs on the moneyline (-126) is our best bet after analyzing all of the key trends and statistics for this matchup. Our computer projects the scoring will finish over the total of 6.5 goals, with the Lightning (+1.5) covering the spread.

Sign up for a FREE Consultation to start working with Legendary Sports Bettor Jon Price

  • Sign Up for a FREE CONSULTATION

    Sign up now to have a free consultation and see how Jon Price and his team can turn sports into a lucrative investment for you!

  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

The leading sports investment firm in the country