Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Prediction, Betting Tips & Picks – NHL Playoffs First Round Game 4

by | May 7, 2022

Game 4 of the NHL Playoffs First Round at Amalie Arena showcases the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Toronto Maple Leafs facing off at 7:00 PM on Sunday, May 8 ET. The Maple Leafs are up 2-1. The bookmakers see this as a tight game, with the Lightning -118 to win on the moneyline, and the Maple Leafs at -103. Find more below on the Lightning vs. Maple Leafs betting line, injury report, head-to-head stats, best bets and more.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Spread and Betting Line

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Betting Information
Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline
Lightning -118 Maple Leafs -103

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Game Info

  • Game Day: Sunday, May 8, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Location: Tampa, Florida
  • Arena: Amalie Arena

Computer Predictions for Lightning vs. Maple Leafs

Computer picks for Lightning vs Maple Leafs
ATS Over/Under Score Prediction
Maple Leafs (+1.5) Over (6.5) Lightning 4 Maple Leafs 3

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Betting Trends

  • In 72 games as the moneyline favorite this season, Tampa Bay has won 48 times.
  • Through 69 games with moneyline odds shorter than -118 this season, the Lightning have been victorious 46 times.
  • There is a 54.1% chance that Tampa Bay wins this game, per the moneyline.

Tampa Bay Lightning Leaders

  • A major offensive player this season for Tampa Bay, Steven Stamkos has scored 106 points in 81 games (42 goals and 64 assists).
  • Victor Hedman has 86 points (one per game), scoring 20 goals and adding 66 assists.
  • Nikita Kucherov’s season total of 69 points has come from 25 goals and 44 assists.
  • Andrei Vasilevskiy (39-18-5) has a goals against average of 2.5 on the season, and 1712 saves. His .916 save percentage ranks 21st in the league.

Tampa Bay Lightning Season Stats

  • The Lightning offense’s 285 total goals (3.5 per game) are ranked seventh in the NHL this year.
  • The Lightning are ranked sixth in NHL play for the fewest goals against this season, having allowed 228 total goals (2.8 per game).
  • With a +57 goal differential, they’re ranked seventh-best in the league.
  • The Lightning’s 63 power-play goals they’ve recorded this season (on 260 power-play chances) are the fourth-most in the NHL.
  • The Lightning have the league’s seventh-best power-play conversion rate at 24.2%.
  • The Lightning’s offense has recorded seven shorthanded goals this season (12th among all squads).
  • The Lightning’s penalty-kill percentage (81.4%) is the league’s ninth-best.
  • The Lightning’s players win 50.1% of their faceoffs to rank 15th in the NHL.
  • The Lightning have an 11.3% shooting percentage as a squad, ranking third in the NHL.
  • The Lightning average 25.9 hits and 12.7 blocked shots per game.

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Betting Trends

  • The Maple Leafs have claimed an upset victory in five, or 45.5%, of the 11 games they have played while the underdog this season.
  • Toronto has won four of its 10 games when it is the underdog by -103 or longer on the moneyline.
  • The win probability for the Maple Leafs, implied from the moneyline, is 50.7%.

Toronto Maple Leafs Leaders

  • Auston Matthews has recorded 60 goals (0.8 per game) and put up 46 assists (0.6 per game), taking 4.8 shots per game and shooting 17.2%. That makes him among the leaders for Toronto with 106 total points (1.5 per game).
  • Mitchell Marner is key for Toronto’s attack with 97 total points (1.3 per game), including 35 goals and 62 assists through 72 games.
  • William Nylander has 34 goals and 46 assists, for a season point total of 80.
  • Jack Campbell has a .914 save percentage (24th in the league), with 1307 total saves, while giving up 123 goals (2.6 goals against average). He has compiled a 31-9-6 record between the posts for Toronto this season.

Toronto Maple Leafs Season Stats

  • The Maple Leafs have the league’s second-best scoring offense (312 total goals, 3.8 per game).
  • The Maple Leafs have given up 3.1 goals per game, 252 total, which ranks 19th among NHL teams.
  • They have a +60 goal differential, which is sixth-best in the league.
  • The Maple Leafs have recorded 63 power-play goals this season (on 231 power-play chances). That’s the fourth-most in the NHL.
  • The Maple Leafs’ power-play conversion rate (27.3%) tops the league.
  • The Maple Leafs have scored 13 shorthanded goals this season (an NHL high).
  • The 81.7% of opponent power plays the Maple Leafs kill is the eighth-best penalty-kill percentage in the league.
  • The Maple Leafs have the NHL’s top faceoff win percentage (55.1%).
  • The 11% shooting percentage the Maple Leafs have amassed ranks fourth in the league.
  • The Maple Leafs have not yet shut out an opponent this season.

Lightning and Maple Leafs Injury Report

Lightning: None

Maple Leafs: Rasmus Sandin: Out (Undisclosed), Petr Mrazek: Out (Groin)

Betting Tips for Lightning vs. Maple Leafs

Our best bet is Lightning on the moneyline at -118 and Maple Leafs (+1.5) against the spread after digging through all of the key trends and stats for this matchup. Our computer projects the scoring will finish over the total of 6.5 goals.

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