Via @PatriotsLife

Kansas City Chiefs (5-0) vs. New England Patriots (3-2) at Gillette Stadium

NFL Week 6: 8:20 ET on Sunday, October 14, 2018

What should be the most exciting game of Week 6 takes place Sunday night when the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs take on the New England Patriots in a game that could be an AFC championship game preview. Kansas City one and exciting contests between these two teams last September, defeating the Patriots 42-27. The Chiefs have won two of the last three games between these two teams and lead the all-time series 18-14-3.

Chiefs Dominate Early to Remain Undefeated

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The Kansas City T-Bones entered last Sunday’s game looking to establish themselves as the best team in the AFC. Mission accomplished as the Chiefs took a commanding 23-0 lead over the Jacksonville Jaguars before completing the victory, 30-14. The Kansas City defense recorded five sacks and added four interceptions in the victory.

Kansas City would take the lead in the first quarter on a 4-yard touchdown run by quarterback Patrick Mahomes. They would extend their lead to 13 thanks to two field goals by Harrison Butker. With 1:49 left in the half, Chris Jones intercepted a Blake Bortles pass, returning it 20 yards for a touchdown to give the Chiefs a 20-0 lead.

Butker added a 38-yard fuel to extend the lead to 23 before Kansas City would finally get a 14-yard touchdown pass from Bortles to get on the board. Running back Kareem Hunt scored from 4 yards out three seconds into the fourth quarter and Bortles would add a 21-yard touchdown run to complete the scoring.

Kansas City is averaging 35 points per game, tops in the NFL. They are giving up on average 25.8 points per game. They are averaging 413 yards of offense per contest but are giving up on average 461.8.

Patriots Dominate Early to Corral Colts, 38-24

The New England Patriots jumped out to a 24-3 lead over the Indianapolis Colts last Thursday before earning a 38-24 victory. Tom Brady threw for 341 yards and three touchdowns and running back Sony Michel added 98 yards and a touchdown on the ground in the win.

New England retook the lead in the first quarter on a Brady 1 yard touchdown pass to Cordarrelle Patterson. In the second quarter, Brady would score from 1 yard out before Adam Vinatieri hit 54-yard field goal to pull the Colts within 11. New England would add 10 points with 94 seconds left in the half. Brady found James White for a 6-yard touchdown pass to extend the lead to 18 and Stephen Gostkowski at a 45-yard field goal with 13 seconds left to make it 24-3.

Indianapolis came out of the half and responded, getting two touchdown passes from Andrew Luck to pull within seven. However, Brady connected with Josh Gordon for a 34-yard touchdown pass, the 500th touchdown toss of his career. Michel scored from 34 yards out to extend the lead back to 21. Luck would throw one more touchdown pass with 71 seconds left in the game to close out the scoring.

New England is averaging 26.6 points per game while giving up 21.6 on average. Their offense is producing 357.4 yards on average while their defense is giving up 366.2 yards per game.

Trends:

Kansas City:

  • 5-0 ATS in their last five games on the road when facing a team with a winning record home.
  • 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
  • 4-0 ATS in their last four games on the road.
  • 6-2 ATS in their last eight games in October.

New England:

  • 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games at home when facing a team with a winning record on the road.
  • 39-19-2 ATS in their last 60 games overall.
  • 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games against a team with a winning record.
  • 35-14-2 ATS in their last 51 games at home.

The Winner Prediction

It isn’t often that a team has gotten the better of the Patriots over the last two decades, but Kansas City has been one of those teams, at least over the last four years. The oddsmakers still give New England the edge, and they still may win this game, but it should be a close affair.

Mahomes looks to be the real deal in Kansas City, and he is the kind of dynamic playmaker that should make this a tough contest for New England to pull out. We take Kansas City and the points.

The Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5) (-110)

The Total

This should be one of those cliché games where the team with the ball last is the team that wins. It would not be surprising to see the total in the high 70s.

The Pick: Over 59.0 (-110)

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