Posted on January 25, 2020, by Travis Pulver
More often than not, it is pretty easy to predict who will win Super Bowl MVP honors—the quarterback. Quarterbacks can impact the game more so than any other player on the field, so it makes sense. It’s certainly how recent history has played out with seven of the last ten Super Bowl MVPs being quarterbacks.
Should the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LIV, there is a very good chance that the MVP is going to be their quarterback, Patrick Mahomes. So, does that mean the best way to win money is to bet on him?
Mahomes has the shortest odds at DraftKings by far (+115) followed by Jimmy Garoppolo (+225, Raheem Mostert (+900), George Kittle (+1600), Tyreek Hill (+2000), and Travis Kelce (+2000). Nick Bosa is the first defensive player listed at +2500.
Obviously, to win more, you need to bet on someone with longer odds. But then the longer the odds, the less likely the player is to actually win MVP. But betting on Mahomes at +115 is not going to get you much.
But it can as part of the right parlay.
So, let’s assume you want to pick Mahomes. Then you must be thinking the Chiefs are going to win (-122). If Mahomes is your choice, then you will want to add a few related legs onto your parlay (odds via DraftKings):
- MVP Award Winner to be a QB -230
- Position of MVP Award Winner: quarterback -230
That parlay alone will turn a $100 bet into $700. But if you really want to go out on a limb, you can take Mahomes on a few of the Mahomes vs Garoppolo bets DraftKings is offering;
- Player to complete the Most Passes – Including
- Patrick Mahomes -240
- Jimmy Garoppolo +187
- Player to have Highest Passer Rating
- Patrick Mahomes -143
- Jimmy Garoppolo +115
- Player to have Most Passing Yards
- Patrick Mahomes -286
- Jimmy Garoppolo +220
- Player to throw most touchdowns
- Patrick Mahomes -225
- Jimmy Garoppolo +175
If the 49ers win, it will likely be because of Raheem Mostert and the defense, so Mahomes will likely lead in all of those categories. Factor each one of those into a parlay making it an eight leg one, and a $100 bet will win you $3679.76.
Of course, with parlays, there is a substantial amount of risk since all it takes is for one of the legs to fail for you to lose. But if you are already banking on Mahomes to win MVP, then you are already assuming the Chiefs are going to win and a QB will win the award.
For Mahomes to win, he is going to have to put on a show which will likely result in him throwing the ball early and often. Thus, making the other four legs relevant.
Now, if you don’t Mahomes will win MVP it will be a little harder to create an eight-leg parlay, but some really good ones can still be made. For example, let’s assume the 49ers win the Super Bowl (+108). It will likely be because Mostert has another big day (+900; +167; +500). That will win you over $33000!
If the 49ers win it could also be because a defender has a big day (+108, +167, +550). Let’s assume it will either be Nick Bosa (+2500) or Richard Sherman (+8000). But against Mahomes, they are the two most likely candidates.
Bosa’s parlay would pay out $86536.16 and Sherman’s over $269K! But bear in mind that only nine of 53 Super Bowls saw fit to name a defender MVP.
But if you are going to bet on someone to win MVP, it would be worth it to look at what other bets you would likely win if that were to happen.
That way you can win a lot of money instead of a little.