Guardians vs. Reds Prediction, Betting Tips & Picks 5/18/2022

by | May 18, 2022

The Cincinnati Reds (10-26) seek to complete a series sweep as they take a 1-0 lead into the finale versus the Cleveland Guardians (16-18) at 6:10 PM ET on Wednesday from Progressive Field. The Guardians are favored (-135) by bookmakers to prevent the sweep and pick up their first win of the series. Cal Quantrill takes the mound for Cleveland while Tyler Mahle is Cincinnati’s starter for the contest.

Guardians vs. Reds Spread and Betting Line

Guardians vs Reds Betting Information
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds
Guardians -135 +114 7.5 -121 +101 -1.5 +159 -191

Computer Predictions for Guardians vs. Reds

Our computer pick: Cincinnati Reds (+114) and Over (7.5)

Guardians vs. Reds Game Info

  • Cleveland Guardians probable starting pitcher: Cal Quantrill
  • Cincinnati Reds probable starting pitcher: Tyler Mahle
  • Game Day: Wednesday, May 18, 2022
  • Game Time: 6:10 PM ET
  • Location: Cleveland, Ohio
  • Stadium: Progressive Field

Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds Pitching Matchup

Quantrill Mahle
6 GS 8
1-2 W-L 2-4
3.93 ERA 5.89
34.1 IP 36.2
15 BB 18
20 SO 40

Guardians Starter Cal Quantrill

  • Quantrill (1-2) takes the mound for the Guardians in his seventh start of the season. He’s put together a 3.93 ERA in 34 1/3 innings pitched, with 20 strikeouts.
  • In his most recent appearance on Wednesday, May 11, the right-hander went 6 1/3 innings against the Chicago White Sox, allowing four earned runs while surrendering 10 hits.
  • The 27-year-old has an ERA of 3.93, with 5.2 strikeouts per nine innings, in six games this season. Opponents are batting .234 against him.
  • Quantrill has registered three quality starts this year.
  • Quantrill is aiming for his fifth straight appearance lasting five or more innings. He averages 5.2 innings per appearance on the mound.
  • The opposing Reds offense has a collective .217 batting average, and is 27th in the league with 253 total hits and 16th in MLB play with 146 runs scored. It has the 23rd-ranked slugging percentage (.351) and ranks 20th in home runs (30) in all of MLB.
  • Among qualifying pitchers in MLB play this season, the 27-year-old ranks 41st in ERA (3.93), 43rd in WHIP (1.282), and 53rd in K/9 (5.2).

Reds Starter Tyler Mahle

  • Mahle (2-4) will take to the mound for the Reds and make his ninth start of the season.
  • The right-hander’s last appearance was on Friday, when he threw six innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates, giving up two earned runs while allowing five hits.
  • The 27-year-old has an ERA of 5.89, a 2.222 strikeout to walk ratio and a WHIP of 1.473 in eight games this season.
  • In eight starts this season, he’s earned a quality start in one of them.
  • Mahle has two starts in a row of five innings or more.
  • The Guardians have scored 161 runs this season, which ranks 10th in MLB. They have 289 hits, ninth in baseball, with 32 home runs (18th in the league).
  • The right-hander has allowed the Guardians to go 5-for-15 with a double, two triples and four RBI in four innings this season.
  • Among qualified pitchers this year, the 27-year-old’s 5.89 ERA ranks 54th, 1.473 WHIP ranks 51st, and 9.8 K/9 ranks 14th.

Guardians Betting Picks & Insights

  • This season, the Guardians have been favored 10 times and won seven of those games.
  • Cleveland has a record of 4-1 when favored by -135 or more by bookmakers this season.
  • The implied probability of a win from the Guardians, based on the moneyline, is 57.4%.
  • Cleveland and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 22 of their 37 opportunities.
  • The Guardians are 19-18-0 against the spread in their 37 chances this season.

Reds Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Reds have won in eight, or 26.7%, of the 30 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs in this year.
  • This year, Cincinnati has won six of 24 games when listed as at least +114 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The Reds have an implied victory probability of 46.7% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
  • Cincinnati and their opponents have gone over in 23 of their 36 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
  • The Reds have posted a record of 15-21-0 against the spread this season.

Guardians Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Jose Ramirez leads the Guardians in home runs (eight) and runs batted in (33).
  • Ramirez’s home runs place him 12th in the majors, and he ranks first in RBI.
  • Owen Miller is batting .296 to lead his team.
  • Miller ranks 68th in homers and 87th in RBI on the season.
  • Steven Kwan is hitting .270 with six doubles, a triple, a home run and 15 walks.
  • Myles Straw is batting .244 with seven doubles, a triple and 21 walks.
  • Straw brings a three-game streak with at least one hit into this one. In his last five games he is hitting .176 with a double, five walks and three RBI.
Name GP BA OBP SLG HR RBI H
José Ramírez 34 .281 .380 .562 8 33 36
Owen Miller 28 .296 .357 .531 4 15 29
Steven Kwan 28 .270 .370 .380 1 13 27
Myles Straw 34 .244 .347 .315 0 6 31
Andrés Giménez 31 .323 .340 .552 4 20 31

Reds Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Brandon Drury leads the Reds with seven long balls and runs batted in, driving in 22.
  • Drury is 21st in homers and 20th in RBI among all batters in the big leagues.
  • Tommy Pham is batting .240 with five doubles, four home runs and 22 walks.
  • Among all major league hitters, Pham is 68th in homers and 138th in RBI.
  • Tyler Naquin paces the Reds’ lineup with a .257 batting average.
  • Tyler Stephenson is hitting .329 with five doubles, four home runs and six walks.
Name GP BA OBP SLG HR RBI H
Brandon Drury 31 .243 .328 .514 7 22 26
Tommy Pham 34 .240 .357 .380 4 12 29
Tyler Naquin 29 .257 .310 .457 3 20 27
Tyler Stephenson 24 .329 .390 .562 4 20 24
Kyle Farmer 33 .214 .277 .316 1 16 25

Betting Tips for Guardians vs. Reds

After digging through all of the key trends and statistics for this matchup, our best bet is the Reds on the moneyline at +114. Our computer prediction sees the scoring going over the total of 7.5 runs.

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