Guardians vs. Reds Prediction, Betting Tips & Picks 5/17/2022

by | May 16, 2022

The Cleveland Guardians (16-17) host the Cincinnati Reds (9-26) on Tuesday to begin a two-game series, with the first pitch at 6:10 PM ET from Progressive Field. The Guardians are listed as -170 favorites, while the underdog Reds have +150 odds on the moneyline. Cleveland’s Zach Plesac gets the start, and he’ll go against Cincinnati’s Connor Overton.

Guardians vs. Reds Spread and Betting Line

Guardians vs Reds Betting Information
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds
Guardians -170 +150 8 -115 -105 -1.5 +120 -140

Computer Predictions for Guardians vs. Reds

Our computer pick: Cincinnati Reds (+150) and Over (8)

Guardians vs. Reds Game Info

  • Cleveland Guardians probable starting pitcher: Zach Plesac
  • Cincinnati Reds probable starting pitcher: Connor Overton
  • Game Day: Tuesday, May 17, 2022
  • Game Time: 6:10 PM ET
  • Location: Cleveland, Ohio
  • Stadium: Progressive Field

Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds Pitching Matchup

Plesac Overton
6 GS 3
1-3 W-L 1-0
4.68 ERA 1.59
32.2 IP 17.0
10 BB 6
20 SO 8

Guardians Starter Zach Plesac

  • Plesac gets the start for the Guardians, his seventh of the season. He is 1-3 with a 4.68 ERA and 20 strikeouts through 32 2/3 innings pitched.
  • His last time out came on Tuesday against the Chicago White Sox, when the right-hander tossed 6 1/3 innings, surrendering four earned runs while giving up five hits.
  • In six games this season, the 27-year-old has a 4.68 ERA and 5.5 strikeouts per nine innings, while allowing a batting average of .260 to opposing batters.
  • Plesac is looking to record his second quality start of the season.
  • Plesac will try to extend a three-game streak of pitching five or more innings (he’s averaging 5.1 innings per appearance).
  • The opposing Reds offense has the 25th-ranked slugging percentage (.350) and ranks 21st in MLB play with 29 home runs. It has a collective .216 batting average, and is 26th in MLB with 244 total hits and 16th in MLB play scoring 141 runs.

Reds Starter Connor Overton

  • The Reds will hand the ball to Overton (1-0) for his fourth start of the season.
  • The right-hander last pitched on Thursday, when he allowed three hits in 6 1/3 scoreless innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
  • The 28-year-old has pitched in three games this season with an ERA of 1.59, a 1.333 strikeout to walk ratio and a WHIP of 1.059.
  • In three starts this season, he’s earned a quality start in one of them.
  • Overton will look to pitch five or more innings for the fourth start in a row.
  • The Guardians have scored 157 runs this season, which ranks 10th in MLB. They have 284 hits, sixth in baseball, with 31 home runs (17th in the league).

Guardians Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Guardians have entered the game as favorites nine times this season and won seven of those games.
  • Cleveland has not entered a game this season with shorter moneyline odds than -170.
  • The Guardians have a 63% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
  • Cleveland and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 21 of their 36 opportunities.
  • The Guardians are 19-17-0 ATS in their 36 games with a spread this season.

Reds Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Reds have won in seven, or 24.1%, of the 29 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs in this year.
  • This season, Cincinnati has come away with a win four times in 17 chances when named as an underdog of at least +150 or worse on the moneyline.
  • Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Reds have a 40% chance of pulling out a win.
  • Contests with Cincinnati have gone over the total set by bookmakers in 22 of 35 chances this season.
  • The Reds are 14-21-0 against the spread in their 35 games that had a posted line this season.

Guardians Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Jose Ramirez has a team-high eight home runs and 33 runs batted in.
  • Among all hitters in MLB, Ramirez is 12th in homers and first in RBI.
  • Steven Kwan is hitting .281 with six doubles, a triple, a home run and 14 walks.
  • Kwan is 232nd in home runs and 113th in RBI among all major league hitters this season.
  • Owen Miller has accumulated a team-best batting average of .298.
  • Myles Straw is batting .242 with seven doubles, a triple and 20 walks.
  • Straw has recorded at least one hit in two straight games. During his last five outings he is batting .100 with a double, four walks and an RBI.
Name GP BA OBP SLG HR RBI H
José Ramírez 33 .290 .386 .581 8 33 36
Steven Kwan 27 .281 .377 .396 1 13 27
Owen Miller 27 .298 .361 .511 3 13 28
Myles Straw 33 .242 .345 .315 0 4 30
Andrés Giménez 30 .326 .344 .565 4 20 30

Reds Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Brandon Drury paces the Reds in home runs (seven), runs batted in (22) and has a team-best batting average of .250.
  • Drury’s home run total places him 19th in the big leagues, and he is 20th in RBI.
  • Tommy Pham is hitting .239 with five doubles, four home runs and 21 walks.
  • Pham is 62nd overall in home runs and 147th in RBI this season.
  • Tyler Stephenson has five doubles, four home runs and six walks while batting .324.
  • Tyler Naquin is batting .248 with 10 doubles, a triple, two home runs and seven walks.
Name GP BA OBP SLG HR RBI H
Brandon Drury 30 .250 .325 .529 7 22 26
Tommy Pham 33 .239 .355 .385 4 11 28
Tyler Stephenson 23 .324 .390 .574 4 19 22
Tyler Naquin 28 .248 .303 .426 2 19 25
Colin Moran 27 .205 .286 .385 4 21 16

Betting Tips for Guardians vs. Reds

Our best bet is the Reds on the moneyline at +150 after looking at all of the key stats and trends for this matchup. Our computer projects the total score will over the total of 8 runs.

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