Diamondbacks vs. Marlins Prediction, Betting Tips & Picks 5/11/2022

by | May 11, 2022

The Miami Marlins (13-17) hope to avoid their fourth straight defeat when they visit the Arizona Diamondbacks (17-14) Wednesday at 3:40 PM ET. The Diamondbacks are listed as -118 favorites, while the Marlins are -102 underdogs as they try to snap their losing skid. Merrill Kelly will get the ball for Arizona while Miami counter with Sandy Alcantara.

Diamondbacks vs. Marlins Spread and Betting Line

Diamondbacks vs Marlins Betting Information
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds
Diamondbacks -118 -102 7 -125 +105 -1.5 +140 -121

Computer Predictions for Diamondbacks vs. Marlins

Our computer pick: Miami Marlins (-102) and Over (7)

Diamondbacks vs. Marlins Game Info

  • Arizona Diamondbacks probable starting pitcher: Merrill Kelly
  • Miami Marlins probable starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara
  • Game Day: Wednesday, May 11, 2022
  • Game Time: 3:40 PM ET
  • Location: Phoenix, Arizona
  • Stadium: Chase Field

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins Pitching Matchup

Kelly Alcantara
6 GS 6
3-1 W-L 2-2
1.22 ERA 3.03
37.0 IP 35.2
9 BB 16
34 SO 31

Diamondbacks Starter Merrill Kelly

  • Kelly (3-1 with a 1.22 ERA and 34 strikeouts in 37 innings pitched) gets the start for the Diamondbacks, his seventh of the season.
  • His last time out came on Saturday against the Colorado Rockies, when the right-hander went 8 2/3 innings, surrendering one earned run while giving up seven hits.
  • The 33-year-old has an ERA of 1.22, with 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings, in six games this season. Opponents have a .212 batting average against him.
  • Kelly is seeking his fifth straight quality start.
  • Kelly will look to pitch five or more innings for his sixth straight appearance. He’s averaging 6.1 innings per outing.
  • He will match up with a Marlins team that is batting .233 as a unit (16th in MLB). It is also slugging a collective .371 (17th in MLB) with 27 total home runs (14th in MLB).
  • The 33-year-old ranks first in ERA (1.22), 27th in WHIP (1.027), and 33rd in K/9 (8.3) among qualifying pitchers in MLB action this season.

Marlins Starter Sandy Alcantara

  • Alcantara (2-2) will take the mound for the Marlins, his seventh start of the season.
  • The right-hander gave up two earned runs and allowed five hits in 4 2/3 innings pitched against the San Diego Padres on Saturday.
  • The 26-year-old has an ERA of 3.03 and 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings with an opponent batting average of .246 in six games this season.
  • He has three quality starts in six chances this season.
  • In six starts this season, Alcantara has lasted five or more innings five times, with an average of 5.3 innings per appearance.
  • The Diamondbacks have scored 113 runs this season, which ranks 20th in MLB. They have 196 hits, 30th in baseball, with 33 home runs (eighth in the league).
  • The 26-year-old’s 3.03 ERA ranks 34th, 1.318 WHIP ranks 50th, and 7.8 K/9 ranks 38th among qualified pitchers in the majors this year.

Diamondbacks Betting Picks & Insights

  • This season, the Diamondbacks have been favored three times and won two of those games.
  • Arizona has a record of 2-1 when favored by -118 or more by bookmakers this season.
  • The Diamondbacks have a 54.1% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
  • Games involving Arizona have gone over the total set by bookmakers in 11 of 33 chances this season.
  • The Diamondbacks are 22-11-0 against the spread in their 33 chances this season.

Marlins Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Marlins have been underdogs in 14 games this season and have come away with the win six times (42.9%) in those contests.
  • Miami has a win-loss record of 5-6 when favored by -102 or worse by sportsbooks this year.
  • The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Marlins have a 50.5% chance of walking away with the win.
  • Miami and their opponents have hit the over in 13 of their 30 games with a total set by oddsmakers this season.
  • In 30 games with a line this season, the Marlins have a mark of 15-15-0 against the spread.

Diamondbacks Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Daulton Varsho leads the Diamondbacks with six home runs and 14 runs batted in, while putting up a team-best batting average of .255.
  • Varsho’s home runs put him 17th in MLB, and he is 61st in RBI.
  • Varsho has collected a hit in nine games in a row. During his last nine outings he is batting .351 with five doubles, two home runs, three walks and five RBI.
  • Christian Walker’s six home runs lead his team.
  • Of all MLB hitters, Walker is 17th in home runs and 76th in RBI.
  • Walker carries a two-game streak with at least one hit into this contest. During his last five outings he is hitting .353 with three doubles, three walks and two RBI.
  • Ketel Marte has 10 doubles, a triple, two home runs and 12 walks while hitting .211.
  • David Peralta has five doubles, four home runs and 13 walks while batting .220.
Daulton Varsho 29 .255 .336 .490 6 14 25
Christian Walker 30 .192 .282 .433 6 13 20
Ketel Marte 30 .211 .298 .376 2 8 23
David Peralta 29 .220 .311 .407 4 11 20
Pavin Smith 28 .238 .337 .393 3 11 20

Marlins Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Jazz Chisholm leads the Marlins with five home runs and 21 runs batted in, while posting a team-high batting average of .300.
  • Chisholm ranks 32nd in homers and 10th in RBI among all batters in the big leagues.
  • Joey Wendle has six doubles, a home run and seven walks while hitting .286.
  • Wendle ranks 195th among all batters in MLB in home runs, and 176th in RBI.
  • Jesus Aguilar is batting .260 with three doubles, three home runs and 14 walks.
  • Jorge Soler has swatted a team- leading five home runs.
Jazz Chisholm 25 .300 .343 .600 5 21 27
Joey Wendle 24 .286 .353 .403 1 8 22
Jesús Aguilar 28 .260 .339 .375 3 14 27
Jorge Soler 30 .177 .273 .354 5 14 20
Garrett Cooper 28 .253 .351 .379 2 11 24

Betting Tips for Diamondbacks vs. Marlins

We have the Marlins on the moneyline at -102 on the moneyline as our best bet in this game after digging through all of the key statistics and trends for this matchup. Our computer picks see the scoring going over the total of 7 runs.

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