Diamondbacks vs. Cubs Prediction, Betting Tips & Picks 5/15/2022

by | May 15, 2022

The Arizona Diamondbacks (18-16) are -125 favorites to take Game 3 of th series from the Chicago Cubs (12-20) Sunday at 4:10 PM ET. The teams enter the matchup with the series record tied, and the underdog Cubs are listed with +105 odds to win the rubber match and take the series victory. Arizona’s Humberto Castellanos gets the start, and he’ll go against Chicago’s Justin Steele.

Diamondbacks vs. Cubs Spread and Betting Line

Diamondbacks vs Cubs Betting Information
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds
Diamondbacks -125 +105 8.5 -110 -110 -1.5 +158 -185

Computer Predictions for Diamondbacks vs. Cubs

Our computer pick: Chicago Cubs (+105) and Over (8.5)

Diamondbacks vs. Cubs Game Info

  • Arizona Diamondbacks probable starting pitcher: Humberto Castellanos
  • Chicago Cubs probable starting pitcher: Justin Steele
  • Game Day: Sunday, May 15, 2022
  • Game Time: 4:10 PM ET
  • Location: Phoenix, Arizona
  • Stadium: Chase Field

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs Pitching Matchup

Castellanos Steele
5 GS 6
2-1 W-L 1-4
4.32 ERA 5.32
25.0 IP 22.0
7 BB 13
16 SO 19

Diamondbacks Starter Humberto Castellanos

  • Castellanos gets the start for the Diamondbacks, his sixth of the season. He is 2-1 with a 4.32 ERA and 16 strikeouts in 25 innings pitched.
  • In his most recent appearance on Tuesday, the right-hander threw 5 1/3 innings against the Miami Marlins, giving up three earned runs while surrendering four hits.
  • In seven games this season, the 24-year-old has amassed an ERA of 4.32, with 5.8 strikeouts per nine innings. Opponents are hitting .256 against him.
  • Castellanos is yet to record a quality start so far this season.
  • Castellanos will try to pitch five or more innings for his third straight start. He’s averaging 3.2 frames per outing.
  • The opposing Cubs offense has a collective .232 batting average, and is 24th in the league with 242 total hits and 21st in MLB play with 127 runs scored. It has the 21st-ranked slugging percentage (.356) and ranks 26th in home runs (23) in all of MLB.

Cubs Starter Justin Steele

  • The Cubs’ Steele (1-4) will make his seventh start of the season.
  • The left-hander last pitched on Sunday, when he gave up two earned runs and allowed three hits in four innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
  • The 26-year-old has pitched to a 5.32 ERA this season with 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings compared to 5.3 walks per nine across six games.
  • None of Steele’s six starts this season have met the criteria for a quality start.
  • In six starts, Steele has pitched through or past the fifth inning one time. He has a season average of 3.2 frames per outing.
  • The Diamondbacks are batting .203 this season, 29th in MLB. They have a team slugging percentage of .355 (23rd in the league) with 35 home runs.

Diamondbacks Betting Picks & Insights

  • This season, the Diamondbacks have won three out of the five games in which they’ve been favored.
  • Arizona has a record of 2-2 in games where sportsbooks favor them by at least -125 on the moneyline.
  • The sportsbooks’ moneyline implies a 55.6% chance of a victory for the Diamondbacks.
  • Arizona and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 12 of their 36 opportunities.
  • The Diamondbacks are 22-14-0 against the spread in their 36 chances this season.

Cubs Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Cubs have been underdogs in 26 games this season and have come away with the win 10 times (38.5%) in those contests.
  • This season, Chicago has been victorious 10 times in 23 chances when named as an underdog of at least +105 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The Cubs have an implied victory probability of 48.8% according to the moneyline set by oddsmakers for this matchup.
  • Contests with Chicago have gone over the total set by oddsmakers in 15 of 32 chances this season.
  • The Cubs have an against the spread record of 17-15-0 in 32 games with a line this season.

Diamondbacks Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Not only does Daulton Varsho lead the Diamondbacks in hitting with his .255 average, he also paces the squad with six home runs and 15 RBI.
  • Among all MLB batters, Varsho ranks 72nd in batting average, 77th in on-base percentage, and 31st in slugging.
  • Varsho carries a two-game hitting streak into this matchup. During his last five outings he is batting .300 with three doubles and two RBI.
  • Christian Walker has hit six home runs to lead his team.
  • Walker ranks 25th in homers in the majors, and 95th in RBI.
  • Ketel Marte is hitting .217 with 12 doubles, a triple, two home runs and 13 walks.
  • David Peralta is hitting .206 with five doubles, four home runs and 14 walks.
Daulton Varsho 32 .255 .333 .482 6 15 28
Christian Walker 33 .193 .287 .412 6 14 22
Ketel Marte 33 .217 .301 .383 2 9 26
David Peralta 31 .206 .301 .381 4 11 20
Pavin Smith 31 .232 .327 .379 3 12 22

Cubs Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Willson Contreras leads the Cubs with a team-leading batting average of .286.
  • Among all hitters in MLB, Contreras ranks 60th in homers and 164th in RBI.
  • Ian Happ is batting .271 with four doubles, two home runs and 20 walks.
  • Happ is 144th in homers and 69th in RBI among all hitters in the majors.
  • Seiya Suzuki has a team-high 16 runs batted in.
  • Nico Hoerner has four doubles, a triple, two home runs and two walks while batting .271.
Willson Contreras 27 .286 .402 .490 4 10 28
Ian Happ 30 .271 .398 .375 2 15 26
Seiya Suzuki 30 .255 .362 .469 4 16 25
Nico Hoerner 29 .271 .293 .396 2 11 26
Patrick Wisdom 30 .214 .274 .427 5 16 22

Betting Tips for Diamondbacks vs. Cubs

After analyzing all of the key statistics and trends for this matchup, our best bet is the Cubs on the moneyline at +105. Our computer picks see the scoring going over the total of 8.5 runs.

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