The AFC West showdown at Mile High Stadium in Denver will see the Kansas City Chiefs going against the Denver Broncos. These two foes will meet each other for the first time this season, and the Chiefs will search for their eighth straight victory over the Broncos.
After winning their first four games in 2019, the Chiefs have dropped two in a row. They’ve lost to Indianapolis 19-13 and Houston 31-24. On both occasions, the Chiefs’ run defense was one to blame. They allowed 180 rushing yards to the Colts and 192 to the Texans.
On the other side, the Broncos have won two straight games following a 0-4 start on the season. While their defense is doing a good job, allowing 17.7 points per game, the Broncos’ offense is tallying only 17.7 points in a return.
If they want to stand a chance against the Chiefs, the Broncos will have to control the clock and put on a strong performance on the ground. It means Phillip Lindsay will be a key guy for the hosts. The second-year RB has 84 carries for 397 yards and four touchdowns this season.
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Lindsay had 114 rushing yards and a TD in Week 5 win at the Chargers. He tallied 70 rushing yards and a TD in the last week’s victory over Tennessee. The bookies set the line at 69.5 rushing yards on Lindsay, and he surpassed it in three of his five outings this term.
On the other side, the Chiefs mostly rely on Patrick Mahomes’ hand, tallying only 82.7 rushing yards per game. LeSean McCoy is leading the Chiefs’ backfield with 48 carries for 258 yards and a couple of TDs. The line on McCoy is set at 40.5 rushing yards, and the veteran surpassed it in three of his four outings this season.
Patrick Mahomes has struggled with an ankle injury over the last few weeks. He had only four touchdown passes in the last three outings. Mahomes has tossed for 2104 yards, 14 touchdowns, and a pick thus far.
The reigning MVP is 3-0 against the Broncos in his career, averaging 297.0 passing yards per contest. Therefore, I would avoid betting on Mahomes to surpass a 313.5-yard line. Also, the Broncos are surrendering only 196.0 passing yards per game.
When it comes to TD scorers, consider taking Tyreek Hill at -120. Hill returned from a shoulder injury last week, scoring a couple of touchdowns against the Texans. He caught five of his ten targets for 80 yards, and Hill is the first option for Mahomes along with tight end Travis Kelce.
Interestingly, in his five meetings with the Broncos, Hill scored only a TD. Travis Kelce is also set at -120 odds to score anytime, and he has four touchdowns in nine games against the Broncos.
Chiefs at Broncos – Betting Trends
As I’ve already mentioned, the Chiefs have won their last seven encounters with the Broncos. They covered the spread six times in that stretch. Likewise, the Chiefs are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last five road meetings with the Broncos.
The Chiefs are 9-3 SU and 8-3-1 ATS in their previous 12 outings on the road and 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS in their last nine games overall. They are 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS in the last 18 encounters with the AFC West.
The Broncos are 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS in their last ten games overall and 5-11 SU and 5-10-1 ATS in their previous 16 outings at Mile High Stadium. They are only 3-9 SU and ATS in the last 12 meetings with the AFC West.
The under has hit in nine of the Broncos’ last ten games at home and their previous eight meetings with division rivals. The over is 10-4 in the Chiefs’ previous 14 games overall, and it is 11-2 in their last 13 showings on the road. Also, the over is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings between Denver and Kansas City.
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