Oakland Raiders Derek Carr

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Cleveland Browns (1-1-1) vs. Oakland Raiders (0-3) at Oakland Coliseum

NFL Week 4: 4:05 ET on Sunday, September 30, 2018

On Sunday, the Cleveland Browns come to California to take on the Oakland Raiders in one of the more odd battles of the weekend. At this point of the season, everyone thought new head coach Jon Gruden would have the Raiders firing on all cylinders, but this team is in a rut. Meanwhile, the Browns are starting to put it all together after earning their first win in two seasons, downing the New York Jets a week ago.

Comeback Earns Browns First Victory in Two Seasons, 21-17

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If it seemed like it had been forever since the Cleveland Browns last won a football game, it was understandable. It was 2016 when the Browns got into the win column, losing all of their games in 2017 while not earning a win in either of their first two contests of 2018. But that streak is over, as the Browns rallied to down the New York Jets, 21-17. Rookie Baker Mayfield led the comeback throwing for 201 yards after coming off the bench.

The Jets would jump out to a 14-0 before Cleveland would cut the deficit to eight with a pair of field goals by Greg Joseph. With a little less than a minute left in the third quarter, Carlos Hyde scored from 1 yard out and Mayfield would tie the score completing the two-point conversion to make it 14-14.

The Jets would retake the lead on a 28-yard field goal by Jason Myers, but Hyde would score once again, plunging across the goal line just before the two-minute warning to put Cleveland on top 21-17. Fellow rookie Sam Darnold’s attempt to rally New York back into the lead fell short in the Browns had their first victory in nearly 2 years.

Mayfield completed 17 of his 23 pass attempts for 201 yards. Hyde had 23 rushes for 98 yards and two touchdowns and Landry had eight receptions for 103 yards.

Cleveland is 22nd in the NFL and average yards per game at 325.7 and they are 20th in points at 20.0 per game. The defense has looked solid, ranked 13th in total yards allowed at 338.3 and they are 11th in points allowed at 19.7.

Fourth Quarter Rally Gives Dolphins 28-20 Victory

The Oakland Raiders dropped their third game of the season, as Miami rallied from 10 points down with three second-half touchdowns to defeat the Raiders, 28-20. A trick play gave Miami the lead and Ryan Tannehill threw for 289 yards and three touchdowns in the Dolphins victory. Derek Carr had 345 yards passing in the loss.

Oakland would take the lead in the first quarter on a 12-yard pass from Carr to Jordy Nelson for a touchdown. The Dolphins would tie the score before Mike Nugent would give Oakland back the lead just before the half on a 25-yard field goal.

Oakland would extend their lead to 10 when running back Marshawn Lynch scored from 1 yard out with a little under three minutes left in the third quarter, but it would be all Miami after that. Tannehill connected on an 18-yard touchdown pass to Jakeem Grant just before the third quarter ended, and the Dolphins dialed up a big trick play, as Albert Wilson took the reverse and found a wide-open Grant for a 52-yard touchdown pass to give Miami the lead.

Tannehill then connected on a 74-yard touchdown pass to Wilson with two minutes left in the game to extend the lead to 11. Oakland would add a late field goal but would fall by eight.

The Oakland offense is sixth in the NFL, averaging 400.7 yards per game, but that is not resulting in points as they are 28th in the league at 17.3 points per game. The Oakland defense is 20th and yards allowed at 374.3 and they are 22nd in points per game allowed at 27.0.

Trends:

Cleveland:

  • 4-1 ATS in their last five games against AFC teams.
  • 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games in week four of the season.
  • 5-2 ATS in their last seven September games.
  • 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a losing record.

Oakland:

  • 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games at home when facing a team with a losing record on the road.
  • 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games against AFC opponents.
  • 4-11-2 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
  • 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games in week four of the season.

The Winner Prediction

It is astounding that Oakland has struggled as much as they have so far this season. The return of their former head coach looked to be the catalyst to make this a playoff team once again, but that has not been the case. Cleveland, on the other hand, has looked incredibly tough and has the much better defense in this contest.

In the last five games in Oakland between these two teams, the Browns are 4-1 ATS. The Browns are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings overall. Cleveland was already the better team and getting points, so go with the Browns.

The Pick: Cleveland Browns (+2.5), (-105)

The Total

This game likely will look very much like the Cleveland game against the Jets. Therefore, go under.

The Pick: Under 45.0 (-108)

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