Posted on January 11, 2020, by Travis Pulver

The Houston Texans were not supposed to beat the Kansas City Chiefs earlier this season when they did. One quarter into the game, down 17-3, it didn’t look like they were going to. But then the Texans got their act together, kept the Chiefs from getting their act together, and went on to upset the Chiefs, 31-24.

As hard as it was to beat the Chiefs in Kansas City once, is there much of a chance they can do it again? Oddsmakers don’t seem to think so since the Chiefs are ten-point favorites. But the Chiefs were favored back in Week Six, too (3.5 points).

So, the Texans win by seven when the Chiefs were favored the first time. This time, the Chiefs are favored by ten? That seems a little high, right?

Well—not exactly.

Kansas City is a different team than it was back in Week Six—at least from a defensive perspective.

Over the last seven weeks of the regular season, the defense gave up 12 points or fewer a game, recorded ten interceptions, and allowed only five touchdowns in the passing game.The Chiefs defense was the best in several key categories: points allowed, total offensive touchdowns (and passing touchdowns) allowed, opponent passer rating, and interceptions.

While it was the turnovers that led to points for the Texans in the second quarter that led to the loss, but what killed the Chiefs was their defense in the second half. They kept the Texans out of the end zone but couldn’t get them off the field.

Houston had the ball for four drives in the second half and held it for about 24 minutes. As great as Patrick Mahomes is, even he can’t score if he isn’t on the field.

Since the turnovers helped put the Texans in front, they had the luxury of being satisfied with taking time off the clock and not putting up points. But Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson is not concerned about what has already happened via the team’s website:

“We can’t worry about what happened in the past; we can’t worry about what’s going to happen in the future. We’ve got to worry about the moment now and take care of the moment now, and then we’ll see what happens whenever that time comes.”

So—can Houston pull off the upset again?

With an offense like the one Kansas City has, it is hard to say yes. But it is possible. However, it will require a few things– like the defense will need to be much better. They will need to get Mahomes off the field.

Watson is going to have to be magical once again. He was back in Week Six. He was last week against Buffalo, and he is going to need to be yet again. While it would be nice to think Will Fuller is not going to drop any deep balls, chances are he will. Yes, Carlos Hyde ran for 100+last time against the Chiefs, but do we expect him to do it again? No.

This one is going to come down to the defense, not letting Mahomes have his way and Watson doing what he does best—finding a way to win. So, does that mean you should bet on the Texans?

DraftKings currently has the Chiefs favored by 9.5.

While it would be fun to say yes, the safe bet would be to take the Chiefs to win. However, taking the Texans and the points would not be a bad idea either.          

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