Brewers vs. Reds Prediction, Betting Tips & Picks 5/11/2022

by | May 11, 2022

The Milwaukee Brewers (18-11) and the Cincinnati Reds (6-23) meet in the rubber match of a three-game series on Wednesday at 12:35 PM ET. The Brewers are -196 favorites on the moneyline to win the series over the Reds (+167). Adrian Houser starts for Milwaukee while Vladimir Gutierrez is Cincinnati’s starter for the contest.

Brewers vs. Reds Spread and Betting Line

Brewers vs Reds Betting Information
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds
Brewers -196 +167 9 -111 -108 -1.5 -127 +106

Computer Predictions for Brewers vs. Reds

Our computer pick: Cincinnati Reds (+167) and Over (9)

Brewers vs. Reds Game Info

  • Milwaukee Brewers probable starting pitcher: Adrian Houser
  • Cincinnati Reds probable starting pitcher: Vladimir Gutierrez
  • Game Day: Wednesday, May 11, 2022
  • Game Time: 12:35 PM ET
  • Location: Cincinnati, Ohio
  • Stadium: Great American Ball Park

Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds Pitching Matchup

Houser Gutierrez
5 GS 5
3-2 W-L 0-5
3.42 ERA 8.86
26.1 IP 21.1
11 BB 17
22 SO 13

Brewers Starter Adrian Houser

  • Houser gets the start for the Brewers, his sixth of the season. He is 3-2 with a 3.42 ERA and 22 strikeouts in 26 1/3 innings pitched.
  • In his last time out on Thursday against the Cincinnati Reds, the right-hander threw five innings, allowing four earned runs while surrendering seven hits.
  • In five games this season, the 29-year-old has an ERA of 3.42, with 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings. Opponents are hitting .222 against him.
  • Houser enters this matchup with two quality starts under his belt this season.
  • Houser is seeking his fifth straight outing lasting five or more innings. He averages 5.1 innings per appearance on the hill.
  • The opposing Reds offense has the 26th-ranked slugging percentage (.340) and is 19th in MLB play with 24 home runs. It has a collective .211 batting average, and is 26th in MLB with 197 total hits and 18th in MLB action scoring 110 runs.
  • In five innings over one appearance against the Reds this season, Houser has a 7.20 ERA and a 1.600 WHIP while his opponents are batting .304.

Reds Starter Vladimir Gutierrez

  • The Reds’ Gutierrez (0-5) will make his sixth start of the season.
  • The right-hander’s last appearance was on Wednesday, when he threw 4 1/3 innings against the Milwaukee Brewers, giving up seven earned runs while allowing eight hits.
  • The 26-year-old has pitched in five games this season with an ERA of 8.86 and 5.5 strikeouts per nine innings, with an opponent batting average of .317.
  • In five starts this season, Gutierrez has not yet earned a quality start.
  • In five starts this season, Gutierrez has yet to pitch five or more innings. He’s averaging 4.1 frames per appearance.
  • The Brewers have scored 140 runs this season, which ranks third in MLB. They have 222 hits, 12th in baseball, with 37 home runs (second in the league).
  • The Brewers have gone 8-for-20 with a double, two home runs and seven RBI in one game against the right-hander this season.

Brewers Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Brewers have entered the game as favorites 26 times this season and won 17, or 65.4%, of those games.
  • Milwaukee is 6-2 this season when entering a game favored by -196 or more on the moneyline.
  • The moneyline for this contest implies a 66.2% chance of a victory for the Brewers.
  • Milwaukee’s games have gone over the total in 14 of their 30 chances.
  • The Brewers are 14-16-0 against the spread in their 30 chances this season.

Reds Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Reds have won in five, or 19.2%, of the 26 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs in this year.
  • Cincinnati has yet to win this season when listed as an underdog of +167 or worse on the moneyline this season.
  • The Reds have an implied victory probability of 37.5% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
  • Cincinnati’s games have gone over the total in 20 of their 30 opportunities.
  • The Reds are 10-20-0 against the spread in their 30 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.

Brewers Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Willy Adames has gone yard eight times this season, the highest mark on the Brewers, while hitting .229 with 22 RBI.
  • Among all MLB hitters, Adames is 110th in batting average, 63rd in on-base percentage, and 20th in slugging.
  • Rowdy Tellez has 25 runs batted in while hitting .266. Both pace his team.
  • Tellez ranks sixth in homers and third in RBI on the season.
  • Christian Yelich is batting .240 with seven doubles, four home runs and 14 walks.
  • Kolten Wong is hitting .237 with four doubles, two triples, a home run and six walks.
Willy Adames 29 .229 .333 .505 8 22 25
Rowdy Tellez 28 .266 .317 .585 7 25 25
Christian Yelich 28 .240 .339 .430 4 17 24
Kolten Wong 27 .237 .291 .355 1 8 22
Hunter Renfroe 27 .218 .259 .446 6 11 22

Reds Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Brandon Drury leads the Reds in home runs (six) and runs batted in (18).
  • Among all hitters in the majors, Drury ranks 15th in home runs and 21st in RBI.
  • Tommy Pham is hitting .234 to lead the lineup.
  • Pham ranks 42nd in homers and 141st in RBI among all MLB hitters this year.
  • Kyle Farmer is hitting .200 with seven doubles, a home run and five walks.
  • Tyler Stephenson has two doubles, three home runs and six walks while batting .280.
Brandon Drury 24 .284 .337 .593 6 18 23
Tommy Pham 27 .234 .345 .415 4 9 22
Kyle Farmer 28 .200 .257 .300 1 13 20
Tyler Stephenson 18 .280 .373 .500 3 12 14
Colin Moran 21 .207 .269 .379 3 16 12

Betting Tips for Brewers vs. Reds

We have the Reds on the moneyline at +167 on the moneyline as our best bet in this contest after analyzing all of the key trends and statistics for this matchup. Our computer prediction sees the scoring going over the total of 9 runs.

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