Brewers vs. Pirates Prediction, Betting Tips & Picks 4/28/2022

by | Apr 28, 2022

The Milwaukee Brewers (11-7), led by Willy Adames on a two-game home run streak, are -170 favorites on the moneyline to defeat the Pittsburgh Pirates (8-9). First pitch is set for 12:35 PM ET Thursday, live from PNC Park. Freddy Peralta will get the ball for Milwaukee while Pittsburgh counter with Jose Quintana.

Brewers vs. Pirates Spread and Betting Line

Brewers vs Pirates Betting Information
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds
Brewers -170 +147 7.5 -105 -116 -1.5 +101 -122

Computer Predictions for Brewers vs. Pirates

Our computer pick: Pittsburgh Pirates (+147) and Over (7.5)

Brewers vs. Pirates Game Info

  • Milwaukee Brewers probable starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta
  • Pittsburgh Pirates probable starting pitcher: José Quintana
  • Game Day: Thursday, April 28, 2022
  • Game Time: 12:35 PM ET
  • Location: Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
  • Stadium: PNC Park

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pitching Matchup

Peralta Quintana
3 GS 3
0-1 W-L 0-1
7.50 ERA 3.86
12.0 IP 14.0
8 BB 8
16 SO 8

Brewers Starter Freddy Peralta

  • Peralta gets the start for the Brewers, his fourth of the season. He is 0-1 with a 7.50 ERA and 16 strikeouts through 12 innings pitched.
  • In his most recent time out on Friday against the Philadelphia Phillies, the right-hander threw five innings, giving up one earned run while surrendering three hits.
  • In three games this season, the 25-year-old has a 7.50 ERA and 12.0 strikeouts per nine innings, while allowing a batting average of .271 to opposing batters.
  • The opposing Pirates offense has a collective .240 batting average, and is 15th in the league with 136 total hits and 19th in MLB play with 65 runs scored. It has the 18th-ranked slugging percentage (.355) and ranks 25th in home runs (11) in all of MLB.

Pirates Starter José Quintana

  • The Pirates will hand the ball to Quintana (0-1) for his fourth start of the season.
  • The left-hander’s last appearance was on Saturday, when he threw 4 2/3 innings against the Chicago Cubs, giving up two earned runs while allowing three hits.
  • The 33-year-old has an ERA of 3.86, 5.1 strikeouts per nine innings and an opponent batting average of .255 in three games this season.
  • Quintana has started three games this season, and he’s lasted five or more innings one time. He averages 4.2 innings per appearance.
  • The Brewers are batting .211 this season, 24th in MLB. They have a team slugging percentage of .342 (22nd in the league) with 14 home runs.

Brewers Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Brewers have won nine, or 60%, of the 15 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
  • Milwaukee is 5-2 this season when entering a game favored by -170 or more on the moneyline.
  • The moneyline for this contest implies a 63% chance of a victory for the Brewers.
  • Games involving Milwaukee have gone over the total set by bookmakers in five of 18 chances this season.
  • The Brewers have an ATS record of 8-10-0 in 18 games with a spread this season.

Pirates Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Pirates have come away with six wins in the 14 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
  • Pittsburgh has a win-loss record of 2-4 when favored by +147 or worse by oddsmakers this year.
  • The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Pirates have a 40.5% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.
  • Pittsburgh and their opponents have hit the over in six of their 17 games with a total set by oddsmakers this season.
  • In 17 games with a line this season, the Pirates have a mark of 9-8-0 against the spread.

Brewers Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Not only does Adames lead the Brewers in hitting with his .239 average, he also paces the squad with four home runs and 12 RBI.
  • Of all batters in MLB, Adames ranks 12th in home runs and 17th in RBI.
  • Adames carries a two-game hitting streak into this matchup. During his last five outings he is batting .421 with a double, three home runs, two walks and nine RBI.
  • Rowdy Tellez has three doubles, three home runs and four walks while hitting .231.
  • Tellez ranks 31st in homers and 73rd in RBI among all hitters in the majors.
  • Christian Yelich is batting .180 with four doubles, a home run and eight walks.
  • Kolten Wong is hitting .183 with a double, two triples and two walks.
Willy Adames 18 .239 .329 .463 4 12 16
Rowdy Tellez 17 .231 .286 .462 3 8 12
Christian Yelich 17 .180 .278 .295 1 8 11
Kolten Wong 18 .183 .219 .267 0 6 11
Andrew McCutchen 17 .238 .296 .302 0 6 15

Pirates Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Ke’Bryan Hayes leads the team in batting average with a high-water mark of .364.
  • In all of the big leagues, Hayes is 240th in homers and 158th in RBI.
  • Hayes has collected a hit in five straight games. In his last five games he is hitting .438 with two doubles, six walks and three RBI.
  • Daniel Vogelbach has shown his power as he leads his team with three home runs.
  • Vogelbach ranks 31st in homers and 127th in RBI among all hitters in MLB.
  • Ben Gamel has two doubles, a home run and eight walks while batting .229.
  • Michael Chavis has collected a team-leading eight runs batted in.
Ke’Bryan Hayes 16 .364 .438 .473 0 5 20
Daniel Vogelbach 14 .320 .382 .560 3 6 16
Ben Gamel 17 .229 .339 .333 1 7 11
Michael Chavis 13 .293 .318 .512 2 8 12
Diego Castillo 12 .262 .279 .357 1 3 11

Betting Tips for Brewers vs. Pirates

After looking at all of the key trends and stats for this matchup, our best bet is the Pirates on the moneyline at +147. Our computer prediction sees the scoring going over the total of 7.5 runs.

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