Braves vs. Marlins Prediction, Betting Tips & Picks 5/21/2022

by | May 21, 2022

The Atlanta Braves (18-21), led by Marcell Ozuna on a three-game home run streak, are -138 favorites on the moneyline to defeat the Miami Marlins (17-21). First pitch is set for 6:10 PM ET Saturday, live from loanDepot park. Atlanta’s Kyle Wright gets the start, and he’ll go against Miami’s Elieser Hernandez.

Braves vs. Marlins Spread and Betting Line

Braves vs Marlins Betting Information
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds
Braves -138 +117 7.5 -107 -113 -1.5 +122 -146

Computer Predictions for Braves vs. Marlins

Our computer pick: Miami Marlins (+117) and Over (7.5)

Braves vs. Marlins Game Info

  • Atlanta Braves probable starting pitcher: Kyle Wright
  • Miami Marlins probable starting pitcher: Elieser Hernandez
  • Game Day: Saturday, May 21, 2022
  • Game Time: 6:10 PM ET
  • Location: Miami, Florida
  • Stadium: loanDepot park

Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins Pitching Matchup

Wright Hernandez
7 GS 7
3-2 W-L 2-3
2.79 ERA 6.15
42.0 IP 33.2
13 BB 12
50 SO 30

Braves Starter Kyle Wright

  • Wright makes the start for the Braves, his eighth of the season. He is 3-2 with a 2.79 ERA and 50 strikeouts in 42 innings pitched.
  • In his most recent outing on Sunday against the San Diego Padres, the right-hander threw 6 1/3 innings, giving up one earned run while surrendering three hits.
  • In seven games this season, the 26-year-old has amassed a 2.79 ERA and 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings, while giving up a batting average of .214 to opposing batters.
  • Wright has registered five quality starts this season.
  • Wright will look to pick up his seventh game of five or more innings pitched this season. He’s averaging 6.0 innings per appearance.
  • He will face a Marlins offense that ranks eighth in MLB with 312 total hits (on a .244 batting average). The team also slugs a collective .397 (eighth in MLB) with 40 total home runs (ninth in MLB).
  • In six innings over one appearance against the Marlins this season, Wright has a 0.00 ERA and a 0.833 WHIP while his opponents are hitting .182.
  • Among qualifying pitchers in MLB play this season, the 26-year-old’s 2.79 ERA ranks 18th, 1.095 WHIP ranks 21st, and 10.7 K/9 ranks sixth.

Marlins Starter Elieser Hernandez

  • The Marlins’ Hernandez (2-3) will make his eighth start of the season.
  • The right-hander gave up two earned runs and allowed three hits in four innings pitched against the Milwaukee Brewers on Sunday.
  • The 27-year-old has pitched in seven games this season with an ERA of 6.15 and 8.0 strikeouts per nine innings, with an opponent batting average of .265.
  • He has started seven games this season, earning a quality start (6 or more IP, 3 or fewer ER) in one of them.
  • Hernandez has made three starts of five or more innings in seven chances this season, and averages 4.2 frames when he pitches.
  • The Braves are batting .222 this season, 25th in MLB. They have a team slugging percentage of .391 (12th in the league) with 50 home runs.
  • The right-hander has allowed the Braves to go 7-for-20 with a double, a triple, three home runs and five RBI in 4 2/3 innings this season.

Braves Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Braves have won 11, or 45.8%, of the 24 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
  • Atlanta has entered 17 games this season favored by -138 or more and is 8-9 in those contests.
  • Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Braves have a 58% chance to win.
  • Atlanta and its opponents have hit the over in 22 of their 39 games with a total this season.
  • The Braves are 18-21-0 against the spread in their 39 chances this season.

Marlins Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Marlins have won in seven, or 38.9%, of the 18 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs in this year.
  • Miami has a mark of 3-6 in contests where oddsmakers favor them by +117 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The Marlins have an implied victory probability of 46.1% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
  • Miami’s games have gone over the total in 19 of their 38 opportunities.
  • The Marlins are 20-18-0 against the spread in their 38 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.

Braves Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Matt Olson is the Braves best hitter so far this season, hitting at a team-leading .250 rate along with four homers and 15 RBI.
  • Olson’s home runs put him 75th in MLB, and he ranks 103rd in RBI.
  • Ozzie Albies is hitting .232 with seven doubles, six home runs and 11 walks.
  • Albies ranks 41st in homers and 88th in RBI in the bigs.
  • Albies heads into this game looking for his fourth game in a row with a hit. During his last five outings he is hitting .190 with a double, a walk and an RBI.
  • Austin Riley has collected a team-high eight home runs.
  • Ozuna’s eight home runs and 19 RBI both lead his team.
  • Ozuna brings a seven-game streak with at least one hit into this one. In his last 10 games he is batting .237 with four home runs, four walks and nine RBI.
Name GP BA OBP SLG HR RBI H
Matt Olson 39 .250 .374 .438 4 15 36
Ozzie Albies 39 .232 .287 .394 6 16 36
Austin Riley 38 .230 .317 .453 8 18 34
Marcell Ozuna 39 .224 .268 .414 8 19 34
Dansby Swanson 39 .220 .297 .402 5 17 29

Marlins Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Jazz Chisholm leads the Marlins with 27 runs batted in while accumulating a team-best batting average of .294.
  • Among all hitters in MLB, Chisholm’s home run total is 27th and his RBI tally ranks 11th.
  • Jorge Soler has shown his power as he paces his team with eight home runs.
  • Soler is 17th in homers and 45th in RBI among all MLB batters this season.
  • Jesus Aguilar has five doubles, five home runs and 14 walks while hitting .272.
  • Miguel Rojas is hitting .209 with four doubles, a triple, two home runs and five walks.
Name GP BA OBP SLG HR RBI H
Jazz Chisholm 32 .294 .341 .597 7 27 35
Jorge Soler 36 .204 .297 .423 8 20 28
Jesús Aguilar 36 .272 .331 .419 5 18 37
Miguel Rojas 33 .209 .254 .313 2 7 24
Jesús Sánchez 35 .224 .281 .384 4 13 28

Betting Tips for Braves vs. Marlins

After looking at all of the key trends and statistics for this matchup, our best bet is the Marlins on the moneyline at +117. Our computer prediction sees the scoring going over the total of 7.5 runs.

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