Braves vs. Marlins Prediction, Betting Tips & Picks 5/20/2022

by | May 19, 2022

The Atlanta Braves (17-21), led by the red-hot Marcell Ozuna and his two-game homer streak, are -145 favorites to pick up a win over the Miami Marlins (17-20) Friday at 6:40 PM ET, live from loanDepot park. Charlie Morton will get the ball for Atlanta while Miami counter with Trevor Rogers.

Braves vs. Marlins Spread and Betting Line

Braves vs Marlins Betting Information
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds Spread Favorite Spread Odds Underdog Spread Odds
Braves -145 +125 7.5 -105 -115 -1.5 +115 -135

Computer Predictions for Braves vs. Marlins

Our computer pick: Miami Marlins (+125) and Over (7.5)

Braves vs. Marlins Game Info

  • Atlanta Braves probable starting pitcher: Charlie Morton
  • Miami Marlins probable starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers
  • Game Day: Friday, May 20, 2022
  • Game Time: 6:40 PM ET
  • Location: Miami, Florida
  • Stadium: loanDepot park

Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins Pitching Matchup

Morton Rogers
7 GS 7
2-3 W-L 2-4
4.93 ERA 4.45
34.2 IP 32.1
18 BB 13
32 SO 29

Braves Starter Charlie Morton

  • The Braves will send Morton (2-3) to the mound to make his eighth start of the season. He is 2-3 with a 4.93 ERA and 32 strikeouts through 34 2/3 innings pitched.
  • The right-hander’s last time out was on Saturday against the San Diego Padres, when he threw six innings, surrendering one earned run while allowing two hits.
  • In seven games this season, the 38-year-old has put up an ERA of 4.93, with 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings. Opponents are hitting .238 against him.
  • Morton has one quality start under his belt this year.
  • Morton is looking for his fourth straight appearance lasting five or more innings. He averages 4.3 innings per appearance on the hill.
  • He will face a Marlins offense that ranks eighth in MLB with 302 total hits (on a .243 batting average). The team also slugs a collective .394 (ninth in MLB) with 39 total home runs (10th in MLB).

Marlins Starter Trevor Rogers

  • The Marlins will hand the ball to Rogers (2-4) for his eighth start of the season.
  • The left-hander’s last start was on Saturday, when he tossed 5 1/3 innings while giving up one earned run on five hits in a matchup with the Milwaukee Brewers.
  • The 24-year-old has pitched in seven games this season with an ERA of 4.45, a 2.231 strikeout to walk ratio and a WHIP of 1.392.
  • In seven starts this season, he’s earned a quality start in one of them.
  • Rogers will look to pitch five or more innings for the third start in a row.
  • The Braves rank 25th in MLB with a .222 batting average this season. They have a team slugging percentage that ranks 13th in the league (.386) and 47 home runs.
  • This season, the left-hander has pitched against the Braves in one game, and they have gone 4-for-18 with a double over five innings.

Braves Betting Picks & Insights

  • This season, the Braves have won 10 out of the 23 games, or 43.5%, in which they’ve been favored.
  • This season, Atlanta has won six of its 14 games, or 42.9%, when favored by at least -145 on the moneyline.
  • The implied probability of a win from the Braves, based on the moneyline, is 59.2%.
  • So far this season, Atlanta and its opponents have hit the over in 21 of their 38 games with a total.
  • In 38 games with a spread this season, the Braves are 17-21-0 ATS.

Marlins Betting Picks & Insights

  • The Marlins have been victorious in seven, or 41.2%, of the 17 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
  • This year, Miami has won three of seven games when listed as at least +125 or worse on the moneyline.
  • Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Marlins have a 44.4% chance of pulling out a win.
  • Miami and their opponents have gone over in 18 of their 37 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
  • The Marlins have posted a record of 20-17-0 against the spread this season.

Braves Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Matt Olson’s .255 average leads the Braves this year. His resume also includes four homers and driven in 15 RBI.
  • Olson ranks 74th in homers and 99th in RBI among all hitters in MLB.
  • Ozzie Albies is batting .233 with seven doubles, six home runs and 11 walks.
  • Albies is 38th in home runs and 99th in RBI on the season.
  • Albies carries a two-game streak with at least one hit into this matchup. During his last five outings he is hitting .250 with two doubles, a walk and two RBI.
  • Austin Riley has put up a team-best eight home runs and 18 runs batted in.
  • Ozuna is hitting .218 with five doubles, seven home runs and nine walks.
  • Ozuna has recorded at least one hit in six straight games. In his last 10 outings he is hitting .216 with three home runs, four walks and seven RBI.
Name GP BA OBP SLG HR RBI H
Matt Olson 38 .255 .373 .447 4 15 36
Ozzie Albies 38 .233 .289 .400 6 15 35
Austin Riley 37 .236 .321 .465 8 18 34
Marcell Ozuna 38 .218 .264 .395 7 17 32
Dansby Swanson 38 .219 .299 .383 4 16 28

Marlins Leaders & Batting Stats

  • Jazz Chisholm leads the Marlins with seven home runs and 27 runs batted in, while recording a team-high batting average of .304.
  • Chisholm ranks 25th in home runs and 10th in RBI among all hitters in MLB.
  • Jesus Aguilar is batting .267 with five doubles, five home runs and 14 walks.
  • Aguilar is 51st in homers and 63rd in RBI among all MLB hitters this year.
  • Jorge Soler leads the Marlins with seven long balls.
  • Miguel Rojas has four doubles, a triple, two home runs and five walks while hitting .214.
Name GP BA OBP SLG HR RBI H
Jazz Chisholm 31 .304 .346 .617 7 27 35
Jesús Aguilar 35 .267 .329 .420 5 18 35
Jorge Soler 35 .195 .287 .391 7 18 26
Miguel Rojas 32 .214 .254 .321 2 7 24
Jesús Sánchez 34 .221 .280 .377 4 13 27

Betting Tips for Braves vs. Marlins

After looking at all of the key stats and trends for this matchup, our best bet is the Marlins on the moneyline at +125. Our computer picks see the scoring going over the total of 7.5 runs.

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