Posted on July 30, 2019, by Travis Pulver
The season is not expected to be a great one for the Miami Dolphins. They are favored to finish the season with the worst record in the NFL (+600 at BetOnline.ag). So, it makes sense that they are a longshot to win the AFC East (+2000) the AFC (+6600), and the Super Bowl (+12500).
So, it is going to be hard to win any money betting on the Miami Dolphins this season. However, choose the right guy and you could win some money betting on who is going to start at quarterback for the Dolphins in Week One when they take on the Baltimore Ravens.
Technically, there are three options: Jake Ruddock, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Josh Rosen. None of the trio were on the roster last season. Ruddock signed a futures contract in January. Fitzpatrick was acquired during free agency shortly after the team let Ryan Tannehill go.
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Rosen was acquired via trade with the Arizona Cardinals after the Cardinals selected Kyler Murray in the first round of the draft.
Of course, Ruddock is not a serious candidate to start; it will come down between Rosen and Fitzpatrick. According to the oddsmakers at BetOnline.ag, the job will likely go to Fitzpatrick:
- Dolphins starting QB in Week 1 of 2019 reg.
- Ryan Fitzpatrick -250
- Josh Rosen +170
That translates into a 71.43 percent chance in favor of Fitzpatrick and a 37.04 percent chance in favor of Rosen. But in light of the comments recently made by first-year head coach Brian Flores, it sounds like the odds should be heavier in favor of Fitzpatrick (via ESPN):
“It’s pretty clear to me that Ryan Fitzpatrick is leading the way. He’s done that in a lot of areas, from leadership to production on the field to the meeting rooms to the walk-throughs. This is an ongoing competition, but right now he’s leading the way.”
Of course, any comments like that need to be taken with a grain of salt at this time of the year. But training camp has barely begun. The outlook could change dramatically once both quarterbacks see some preseason action. Looking at how they did last year doesn’t really help, either:
- Ryan Fitzpatrick: played in eight games or the Buccaneers last season and completed 66.7 percent of his passes for 2366 yards with 17 touchdowns and 12 interceptions (also lost four fumbles)
- Josh Rosen: played in 14 games for the Cardinals last season and completed 55.7 percent of his passes for 2278 yards with 11 touchdowns and 14 interceptions (also lost five fumbles)
Factor in the fact that Fitzpatrick is 36 and an obvious bridge quarterback at best, and it almost seems clear that the logical choice is Rosen. He is a former first-round pick and only 22 years old. So, if he is going to be the potential long-term solution at quarterback, the team needs to figure out what they have in him.
If he is—great. But if he isn’t, then they will likely be in a good position for the 2020 draft.
However, if it comes down to who will give the team a better shot to win in Week One, Fitzpatrick is the likely choice. He is much more likely to be a serviceable quarterback at that point then Rosen is. Since winning games is what will keep Flores employed, Fitzpatrick is the logical choice.