Week 5 of the 2019 NFL season closes down with the interconference clash between the Cleveland Browns and San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football. The 49ers are 5-point favorites at the moment with the total at 46.5 points.
You can find out our prediction for this game among the betting picks of the day. Still, there are plenty of intriguing props and alternative margins, so we want to take a closer look at the clash between the Browns and Niners.
First, we’ll start with the total, as the chalk seems pretty low at 46.5 points. The Niners are the 3rd-most efficient team in the league with 32.0 points per game. They are racking up 175.0 rushing yards per contest which are the 2nd-most in the NFL.
The Browns are tallying 22.2 points per game (17th in the NFL) on 380.2 total yards (12th). They are surrendering 22.8 points in a return (13th), while the 49ers are allowing 18.0 points per contest (8th).
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Both teams have plenty of quality offensive weapons. They can make a lot of damage through the air, so betting on the over seems like a logical choice. The over is 5-5 in Cleveland and San Francisco’s last ten games overall. On the other hand, the under has hit in all four H2H duels since 2003.
As we’ve already mentioned, the 49ers’ ground game was excellent in the first three weeks, so Jimmy Garoppolo’s numbers are not impressive. He’s tossed for 739 yards, five touchdowns, and four interceptions.
In each game thus far, Jimmy has thrown for at least a TD and a pick, as well as Baker Mayfield on the other side. Mayfield has thrown for 1147 yards, four touchdowns, and six interceptions. Also, Mayfield was sacked 14 times.
The Niners’ run defense is the 3rd-best in the NFL, allowing just 75.0 yards per game. The Browns’ run defense is 18th with 119.8 yards surrendered, so both teams should rely a lot on their passing game. Mayfield has surpassed a 257-yard mark in three of his four outings this season, while Garoppolo has thrown for at least 277 yards twice.
When it comes to touchdowns, keep your eyes on two running backs. Nick Chubb scored four times for the Browns, as well as Jeff Wilson Jr. for the 49ers.
Chubb put on a tremendous performance against the Ravens in Week 4. He ran for three touchdowns and 165 yards on 20 carries. On the other side, Wilson is a deadly weapon in the red zone. He scored a couple of touchdowns against Pittsburgh and Cincinnati even though he had just 18 totes for 52 yards in the total.
However, my favorite to score a TD is the Niners’ tight end George Kittle who’s still scoreless this season. Still, Kittle is Garoppolo’s main target. He caught 17 of Jimmy’s 21 passes for 165 yards. Kittle had five touchdowns last season while tallying 88 receptions for 1377 yards.
The bookies expect Kittle to catch at least six passes against the Browns, setting the odds at -160. George surpassed a 5.5-reception line in two of his three showings in 2019.
On the other side, Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry are key guys in the Browns’ receiving corps. It’s hard to tell who could be No. 1 in this one. Last week, Landry destroyed the Ravens with eight receptions for 167 yards, while Beckham had only two catches for 20 yards.
If this one turns out to be a proper high-scoring affair, we should see at least five touchdowns in the total at -200 odds. Consider taking the alternative 48-point line on the totals at +105 odds, as two of the Niners’ three games this season had at least points in the total.
In Week 3, the Niners defeated the Steelers 24-20 at home, but it could have easily been a 50-plus point game. The Niners turned the ball over five times, while the Steelers did it twice.
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